Through January, water deficits of varying intensity are forecast across northwestern South America and will be extreme to exceptional in Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil; southern Venezuela; southwestern Colombia; and a pocket surrounding Quito, Ecuador. Other areas of deficit include: from southern Peru past Santiago, Chile; from Cochabamba, Bolivia past the southern border; and central Mato Grosso, Brazil. Areas of surplus include: eastern Paraguay and across the borders into Argentina and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; and northern Bolivia.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses persist in Nicaragua; deficits ahead for Jamaica
The forecast through January indicates moderate to severe deficits in the northern Yucatan Peninsula and scattered throughout the southern states, and severe deficits along the Rio Grande in Chihuahua. Surpluses are forecast for northern Coahuila; a path from southern Durango through Mexico City; and, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. Intense deficits are forecast for Jamaica.
Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to intensify in the Ural River watershed
The forecast through January indicates intense water surpluses for Russia’s Ob River, Yenisei River watershed, the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, and along the Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers. Surpluses in the Northern European Plain will intensify, becoming exceptional, and intense surpluses will re-emerge in the Volga Uplands. Deficits will intensify in the Ural River watershed of Russia and Kazakhstan. In Turkmenistan, severe deficits will persist along the Harirud River in Turkmenistan.
Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits to persist in NSW, VIC, & TAS
The forecast through January indicates that intense water deficits will persist in southeastern Australia with exceptional deficits in western Tasmania. Deficits may be severe to extreme along the Murray River. Moderate deficits will cut a broad path from New South Wales into the center of the country surrounding the Simpson Desert. Some severe deficits are forecast in western North Island, New Zealand. Deficits in New Caledonia will moderate.
East Asia: Widespread water surpluses forecast south of Yangtze River
The forecast through January indicates widespread surpluses south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and western Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. Deficits are forecast for Hubei, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi, and Hebei. Deficits are expected to increase and intensify across southern Mongolia and from western Inner Mongolia, China through Xinjiang with conditions of both deficit and surplus in areas of transition. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast in the south and moderate deficits in the north.