Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain.
Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
The forecast through June indicates water surpluses near Toronto and Calgary, and deficits for Winnipeg, Regina, and Vancouver Island. Deficits will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread in the north, and surpluses will emerge in the Gatineau River Watershed. Surpluses will increase in southeastern British Columbia.
The forecast through September indicates that moderate water surpluses will persist from Lake Huron to Toronto but surpluses in southern Quebec, including the Gatineau River Watershed and Montreal, will nearly disappear. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in southern Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
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