Canada: Water surpluses will increase in southern BC

27 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through November indicates a forecast of deficits for much of Quebec north of the Gouin Reservoir in the Mauricie region of the province including vast areas of exceptional deficit.

Elsewhere in the nation, exceptional deficits are forecast for western Labrador, a column along Ontario’s northeastern border, the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, a belt across central Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, central Alberta west of Edmonton and also the province’s northwest corner, and in British Columbia at the bend of the Fraser River east of Prince George.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201912-202011_12mo_twitter.png

A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Churchill Lake in northern Saskatchewan leading north well past Lake Athabasca and west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected around Fort St. John in northern British Columbia, and intense surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City, Saskatoon, Edmonton, and Vancouver; surpluses from Ottawa to Montreal, and near Toronto and Calgary; and deficits around Winnipeg and Regina.

Deficits will shrink in norther Quebec (QC) though vast pockets will persist. Surpluses will emerge in southern QC between Ottawa and Montreal, in the east at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and in the far north. Intense deficits are forecast in a wide path along Ontario’s (ON) northeastern border; moderate to extreme deficits in pockets of Southern Ontario with surpluses near Toronto; and severe to exceptional deficits in the province’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses are forecast along ON’s Hudson Bay coast and in a band north of the Albany River to James Bay.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201912-202011_3mo_twitter.png

In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits are forecast in a wide band north of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba (MB) and in the northeast along Hudson Bay; a small pocket of extreme deficit is expected around Winnipeg. In Saskatchewan (SK), moderate to extreme deficits are expected around Regina, exceptional deficits in the Upper Assiniboine River region, and deficits of varying intensity in the North Saskatchewan River region. Intense surpluses will persist in a vast block of northwestern SK reaching across the border past Fort McMurray, Alberta (AB).

Exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern AB and severe to exceptional deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in the center of the province. Surpluses will increase along the South Saskatchewan River and in a vast path on AB’s western border from the Peace River in the north to the U.S.

Surpluses in the Peace River region will reach across into British Columbia (BC) past Fort St. John and Williston Lake. Elsewhere in BC, surpluses will increase in the south, exceptional in the southern Columbia Mountains and moderate to severe in the southeastern region of the Coast Mountains. Deficits in central BC at the intersection of the Nechako and Fraser Rivers will remain intense though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. A small pocket of extreme deficit will persist around Prince Rupert on the coast and intense deficits will persist along BC’s border with Yukon.

From June through August, exceptional deficits will shrink slightly in QC north of the Gouin Reservoir, but deficits of varying intensity will increase, covering much of the region. Deficits will persist in aforementioned areas of ON and will emerge north of Lake Superior. Surpluses will retreat north of the Albany River but persist along the province’s Hudson Bay coast. Anomalies in the northern halves of the Prairie Provinces will remain much the same as in the prior three-month forecast, but deficits will retreat from southern SK and surpluses will diminish in southern AB and along its western border. In BC, surpluses in the north around Williston Lake will disappear, deficits will shrink and downgrade, as will surpluses in the south.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates that deficits will shrink, particularly in QC, but remain exceptional and widespread in Manitoba. Surpluses will shrink in BC and AB but remain widespread in northwestern SK.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Faced with a rise in catastrophic flooding claims, the Insurance Bureau of Canada is urging the federal government to update the nation’s flood maps within the next three years rather than the decade timeline currently proposed by the natural resources ministry. Canada’s flood maps are nearly a quarter century out of date, and the current update plan limits mapping to fluvial - river and lake - flooding, ignoring urban and coastal flooding. The insurance industry paid out $1.9 billion (US $1.35 billion) annually on average over the last decade compared with $422 million (US $300 million) annually in the prior 25 year period from 1983 to 2008.

Quebec’s public security minister has announced that, in the event of spring flooding, the provincial government will not be operating emergency shelters as it had in prior years, a decision reached in response to the highly contagious coronavirus that is swiftly circling the globe.

Adverse weather conditions during last year’s harvest season forced Canadian farmers to leave many crops unharvested, including canola, soy, and potatoes and it remains to be seem how much of that harvest can be salvaged this spring. Those unharvested crops are skewing statistics in stocks data.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags