South Asia: Widespread water surplus will persist

South Asia: Widespread water surplus will persist

27 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates that moderate surpluses will dominate much of central India from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan and into Uttar Pradesh in the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will also trace a wide path along the western coast from Mumbai through Karnataka.

Anomalies will reach extreme to exceptional intensity in a path from Pune in Maharashtra through central Karnataka, and in a pocket in central Rajasthan. Anomalies will also be intense in India’s Far North. Tamil Nadu in the nation’s southern tip will see some moderate surplus anomalies, and surpluses will reach throughout Sri Lanka nearby where anomalies will be extreme along the southeast coast. Severe deficits are forecast for India’s Far Northeast.

Moderate surpluses are expected for the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh and some pockets in the northeast. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for northwestern Nepal, but surpluses will be intense down the center of the country along the Gandaki River, moderating as it joins the Ganges in India.

In Pakistan, surpluses are expected along major rivers, in the north, and crossing the central border into Afghanistan reaching from Kabul to Kandahar. Surpluses are also forecast in a pocket surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan. Anomalies will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif and in the Hindu Kush in Pakistan, and primarily extreme in southeastern Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast for northern and western Afghanistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

Surpluses will remain widespread in Nepal and Bangladesh, downgrading somewhat in Bangladesh. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast for Sri Lanka as transitions occur. Intense surpluses are expected to persist along rivers in Pakistan, in the north, and along the border with Afghanistan. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat in Afghanistan but will remain widespread from Kabul past Kandahar and exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif in the northwest. Mild deficits will emerge in western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan.

From June through August, surpluses will diminish considerably overall leaving normal conditions in many areas. Some intense surpluses will persist in India’s Far North and along a path from western Maharashtra southeast into central Karnataka. Moderate surpluses are forecast in several regions including a large block at the intersection of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra; in central Uttar Pradesh; and southern Tamil Nadu. Deficits will intensify in the Far Northeast.

In Sri Lanka, moderate surpluses will re-emerge. Conditions in Bangladesh and Nepal will return to near-normal, with surpluses persisting along the Gandaki River through Nepal into India. Surpluses will shrink along rivers in Pakistan and persist in Afghanistan from Kabul to Kandahar. Transitional conditions are forecast around Mazar-e Sharif, and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in southern Afghanistan leading across the border into Pakistan.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates moderate surpluses increasing in India from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in some pockets of the south. Transitional conditions are expected in southeastern Afghanistan and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge near Karachi in Pakistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
In early March, torrential rains in northwestern Pakistan left 23 people dead and 54 injured. Most deaths resulted from homes collapsing in the deluge. The provincial government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa declared an emergency, releasing funds for emergency shelters.

Ten people were killed in Punjab Province when four passenger buses in Dera Ghazi Khan were swept away in floodwaters.

Heavy precipitation has damaged crops in many regions of India. In Maharashtra State on the country’s west coast, wheat, cotton, orange, maize, banana, and mango crops were affected. As much as 20 percent of the mustard crop in Rajasthan has suffered damage, and crop damage has also been reported in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.