Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Thailand & Cambodia will downgrade

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Thailand & Cambodia will downgrade

29 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits throughout mainland Thailand and western Cambodia including Tonlé Sap. Deficits nearly as intensity are expected in peninsular Thailand and peninsular Malaysia. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Laos.

Western Myanmar will see surpluses as will Vietnam’s North Central Coast and Central Highlands.

Deficits are forecast for eastern Sumatra with a few small, isolated pockets of moderate surplus on the island’s west coast. Surpluses are also forecast for northern Indonesian Borneo, western Java, western Flores Island, the eastern half of New Guinea’s Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai Peninsula), and northern Luzon, Philippines. Deficits are expected in Mindanao and in the eastern Philippines; Brunei; Bali; and around the western shore of the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea where anomalies will be intense.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates that deficits in Thailand will moderate and deficits in Cambodia will shrink, though intense anomalies are forecast near Tonlé Sap. Deficits will increase in the Malay Peninsula and will emerge in Vietnam south of Da Nang. Surpluses are forecast for Vietnam’s North Central Coast and a belt across the south; northeastern Laos; and pockets of western and northern Myanmar. Exceptional deficits will emerge along the southern Irrawaddy River in Myanmar including the delta region.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in northern and eastern Sumatra, along Borneo’s north shore, Mindanao and the eastern Philippines, North Maluku and western Bird’s Head Peninsula, and the Gulf of Papua. Areas of surplus include Java, Flores, pockets of Indonesian Borneo and Sulawesi, and northern Luzon.

From June through August, anomalies in the region will shrink and downgrade considerably. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for southern and western Thailand, and moderate to severe deficits in Kayin Province in southeastern Myanmar, peninsular Malaysia, and pockets of eastern Sumatra. Relatively mild deficits are expected in the Philippines, and a small pocket of exceptional deficit is forecast in East Timor. Moderate surpluses are expected in easternmost Vietnam and scattered, small pockets of Indonesia and New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates some moderate deficits in Thailand, northernmost Vietnam, and central Philippines, and moderate surpluses in New Guinea and in many pockets throughout Indonesia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Torrential rainfall hit Jakarkta, Indonesia at the end of February, affecting nearly 75,000 people, displacing nearly 20,000, and killing 5. Some parts of East Jakarta reported water levels of 100 cm (39 inches). Flooding disrupted power supplies, train and bus schedules, and closed many roads.

Flash flooding in Yogyakarta in central Java, Indonesia left 10 junior high students dead after a scouting trip along the Sembor River. The scoutmaster leading the trip has been charged with negligence and could face up to five years in prison.

Drought in Thailand has pushed sugar production down by 36.6 percent year-on-year. With cane yield low, the crushing season ended much earlier than usual, late March rather than early May. The Thai agriculture industry also took a hit from the drought with tapioca production down by 30 percent in some regions, and rice export prices rose to their highest level in six and a half years.

The government of Vietnam estimates that 362,000 hectares of rice fields and 136,000 fruit trees will be affected by drought and salinity this year. Five provinces in the Mekong Delta have declared a state of emergency. In early March, around 70,000 households experienced water shortages.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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