Canada: Deficits will shrink in the southern Prairies

25 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through December indicates widespread water deficits in the eastern half of the nation.

Deficits will be exceptional in many regions including southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, the Manicouagan Reservoir region in Quebec, and a vast area near Lake Mistassini. Deficits will be only slightly less intense in Southern Ontario east of Georgian Bay, while a small pocket of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in Kenora District.

Widespread exceptional deficits will belt central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Some pockets of severe deficit are expected in southern Manitoba including Winnipeg. Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across southern Saskatchewan. Central Saskatchewan can expect deficits, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Exceptional deficits are expected in northwestern Alberta, deficits of varying intensity in the Middle Athabasca River region, and surpluses north of Banff.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed. Deficits are expected at opposite ends of the province’s southern region in Vancouver Island and in East Kootenay. The Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds will see intense deficits as will British Columbia’s central far north from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that although deficits in Quebec will shrink somewhat, vast areas of intense deficit will persist particularly from Quebec into Labrador and surrounding Lake Mistassini. Deficits will also persist in eastern Newfoundland, east-central New Brunswick, and the Lower St. Maurice River east of Montreal. Surpluses will retreat from eastern Labrador and the Gaspé Peninsula, emerge in northwestern Newfoundland, and linger near Toronto. In Southern Ontario, exceptional deficits will increase east of Georgian Bay and widespread deficits will persist in Northern Ontario. Conditions will continue to normalize in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Intense deficits will persist in central and northern Manitoba, pockets of central Saskatchewan, and central and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta and will increase in the Canadian Rockies of southern Alberta. Surpluses will also increase in southern British Columbia. Deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island but intensify in the Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds and persist from Williston Lake in the far north into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

From July through September, moderate deficits will increase in eastern Canada and surpluses will nearly disappear. Deficits in southern Newfoundland and New Brunswick will downgrade slightly. Deficits will remain dominant in Manitoba’s northern half, conditions in southern Saskatchewan will become normal, and surpluses in southwestern Alberta will shrink as deficits elsewhere downgrade. In British Columbia, surpluses in the south will shrink and moderate, deficits will persist in East Kootenay, and deficits in the north will downgrade overall but intensify on the Peace River, becoming extreme.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates that deficits will shrink overall, persisting primarily in Northern Ontario and Manitoba. Surpluses will shrink in southern British Columbia, persist in northwestern Saskatchewan, and emerge in Quebec’s Ungava Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Dry weather in the Prairie Provinces plunged last season’s oat crop to its lowest output in a decade, sending prices of the breakfast staple soaring in mid-April.

A spring snowstorm dumped up to 30 centimeters (11.8 inches) on Winnipeg, Manitoba and drifts much higher elsewhere. That layer could delay spring planting as farmland in some areas of southern Manitoba are now submerged after subsequent rainfall. Precipitation also led to flooding in city streets and basements and power outages affecting 15,000 people.

Communities in the floodplain of Alberta’s Red Deer River are facing the reality of relocation as government funds for flood mitigation get parsed. Of the $55 million allotment that includes money for dykes and berms in the town of Drumheller, $20 million is earmarked for property buy-outs to encourage relocation.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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