Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook May 2022

3 May 2022

OVERVIEW
The May 2022 Outlook indicates much hotter than normal temperatures in central Brazil, Indonesia, and Siberia. Bangladesh and India can expect precipitation surpluses.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Widespread precipitation surpluses are forecast in Bangladesh, including exceptional surpluses in the Ganges Delta. Elsewhere in South Asia, surpluses of varying intensity are expected in a vast belt across India from southern Gujarat through West Bengal. Surpluses will be moderate in the center of the nation but extreme to exceptional in coastal Maharashtra and in West Bengal and Odisha. Eastern Nepal will be moderately wetter than normal.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In southern India, moderate to severe precipitation deficits are forecast in southern Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu, as well as in eastern Sri Lanka. Pakistan can expect moderate deficits west of the Indus River becoming severe in the far north region of Gilgit-Baltistan. Pockets of primarily moderate deficit are also forecast in Afghanistan’s southern half, and a pocket of moderate surplus in Baghlan Province in the north.

Southeast Asia will see somewhat wetter than normal conditions in eastern Myanmar and in the nation’ s northern tip; in northwestern Thailand and the narrow southern strip shared with Myanmar; throughout Cambodia; and from central through southern Vietnam. Surpluses will be moderate overall in Southeast Asia but severe through central Cambodia into the Mekong Delta. The central Philippines will be moderately wetter than normal. Western and northern Sumatra will be drier than normal with moderate to severe deficits. Deficits of similar intensity are forecast for southwestern Borneo, but moderate surpluses are forecast in pockets of the northeast. Precipitation deficits of varying intensity are expected from southwestern Sulawesi through the Maluku Islands and into the Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai) of New Guinea, and surpluses spanning south-central regions of New Guinea.

Precipitation surpluses will reach into northern Australia’s Top End, Northern Territory and the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, as well as much of the remainder of Queensland to the coast including Brisbane and into New South Wales. The Outback region around Alice Springs will be somewhat wetter than normal. Overall, surpluses in Australia will be moderate with some severe pockets. Precipitation in New Zealand will be relatively normal, but surpluses are forecast in New Caledonia.

In East Asia, widespread, moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in south and southeastern China and deficits will reach severe intensity in Jiangxi. Moderate to severe deficits are also forecast in Sichuan. Yunnan and much of Tibet (Xizang) will be wetter than normal. Somewhat drier than normal conditions are expected in western Xinjiang Uygur, far eastern Mongolia, and some pockets of central South Korea.

Moving to Central Asia and Russia, western Kazakhstan and western Uzbekistan will see moderate precipitation surpluses. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in eastern Uzbekistan, south-central Kyrgyzstan, and Tuva and southern Krasnoyarsk in southern Siberia. Moderate deficits are also forecast on the central east coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula.

The Middle East can expect moderately drier than normal conditions in western Turkey and around Ankara; from Syria into Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq; and the western provinces of Iran and northeastern Kerman Province. Much of western Saudi Arabia will see moderate precipitations deficits with some pockets of greater intensity.

West Africa can expect generally moderate deficits in Senegal, reaching into nearby nations. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast from Central African Republic into Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Republic of the Congo, and in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somaliland, and southeastern Tanzania. Extreme surpluses are forecast in westernmost DRC and nearby regions, and moderate surpluses in pockets of southern DRC and from northern Zambia into central Tanzania.

In Europe, moderate to severe precipitation deficits are forecast in pockets of eastern and southern Germany, and moderate deficits in pockets of Poland, northeastern Italy into Slovenia, Ukraine, Moldova, and much of eastern Bulgaria into Greece. Northern Europe can expect severe deficits in Oslo, Norway, moderating as they radiate outward and into Sweden. Surpluses are forecast in Norway’s narrow northern half. In southern Europe, moderate surpluses are forecast in Spain from southern Aragon into Castilla-La Mancha.

South America can expect exceptionally drier than normal conditions in central Chile’s Bio Bio and Maule Regions. Severe deficits are forecast just north in Santiago and Valparaiso, and moderate deficits farther north into the Atacama Desert. Deficits in Chile will bleed across the border into Argentina. Surpluses are expected in the Southern Patagonian Icefield. In Argentina, moderate deficits are forecast in Buenos Aires Province and moderate to severe deficits in the Chaco Austral in the north leading through Uruguay and into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Some moderate deficits are predicted in central Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso and Goiás, and severe deficits in the northern state of Roraima. Scattered, generally moderate deficits are forecast throughout the Andes, and a pocket of severe deficit is expected near Merida, Venezuela. Areas with a forecast of surplus include coastal Colombia and the nation’s northeast, and from coastal French Guiana into Brazil.

The southern nations of Central America will be somewhat wetter than normal as will Jamaica in the Caribbean. Hispaniola will be moderately drier than normal. In Mexico, the northern states will see moderate precipitation deficits but severe deficits will form a broad arc along the Gulf of Mexico reaching inland, moderating as they extend south through Veracruz. Deficits will be particularly widespread in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and San Luis Potosi.

In the United States, California, the Southwest, and southern Texas will be moderately drier than the norm. Moderate surpluses are forecast in pockets of the Ohio River Basin. Western Washington State can also expect moderate surpluses.

Precipitation surpluses will reach through western British Columbia, Canada, elevating to severe intensity in some pockets. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern BC. In eastern Canada, moderate deficits are predicted in west-central Quebec in the watersheds of the many rivers leading into Hudson and James Bays.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
In South America, nearly all regions of Brazil outside of its southern states can expect warmer than normal temperatures and a vast area encompassing central Brazil will be blanketed in exceptionally hotter conditions. These exceptional temperatures will reach from Maranhão in the north to São Paulo State in the south and from Mato Grosso in the west into Bahia in the east. Elsewhere on the continent, warm anomalies are forecast in many regions across its northern arc. Anomalies will be moderate through the Guianas, moderate to severe in northwestern Venezuela, and exceptional in southern Venezuela. Exceptionally hotter temperatures are predicted in the Andes through Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, with moderate anomalies throughout much of the remaining extent of those nations. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected through the Andes in western Bolivia and northern Chile. From eastern Bolivia through the Chaco regions of Paraguay and northern Argentina and into Uruguay, temperatures will be cooler than normal. Southern Patagonia will be moderately warmer than normal.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Though temperatures in Nicaragua will be relatively normal, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in many other regions of Central America and the Caribbean. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter in the Bahamas and extremely hotter in Jamaica. Most of central and northern Mexico will be much warmer than normal including exceptionally hotter temperatures in Coahuila and Nuevo León in the north, and in the center of the nation from Jalisco on the Pacific into Veracruz State on the Gulf of Mexico. In the south, severe warm anomalies are forecast in Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the United States in California, the Southwest, Texas, and Gulf region. Anomalies will be moderate overall but widespread severe to extreme anomalies are expected in western and southern Texas, and severe anomalies in New Mexico’s southeastern quadrant, from the Bay Area in California to Reno, and the southern San Joaquin Valley. Warmer than normal temperatures will skirt the US East Coast from Maine through Florida, and moderate anomalies will be widespread in the Carolinas and Georgia. Severe anomalies are forecast in much of Florida with more intense conditions near Miami. Alaska will be moderately warmer than normal in the center of the state but exceptionally hotter in the Brooks Range and North Slope.

Much of western Canada and the Prairies will see relatively normal temperatures. In the east, Northern Ontario will be moderately warmer than normal. Quebec can expect moderately warmer temperatures as well, but anomalies will become severe in the center of the province from Lake Mistassini to the Manicouagan Reservoir and leading north, where anomalies will be extreme in the Ungava Peninsula. The Canadian territories will be warmer than normal and conditions will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in the northern extent.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in Western, Southern, Central, and some large pockets of Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Anomalies will be severe throughout France, Switzerland, the western Alps, Slovenia, Corsica, Sardinia, from northern Belgium into the Netherlands, and much of the United Kingdom. Temperatures in the western UK and Ireland will be extremely to exceptionally hotter than normal. Southern Norway and Sweden can expect moderately warmer than normal conditions. Near-normal temperatures are forecast for northern Scandinavia and European Russia.

The southern Sahara and Sahel in Africa will be dominated by hotter than normal temperatures that will reach through the Horn of Africa in the east and through West African nations around the Gulf of Guinea. Moderate warm anomalies are expected in pockets of North Africa, and anomalies of varying intensity in the heart of Africa in Central African Republic, the northern half of DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Warm anomalies will be intense in southern Kenya and in the nation’s northwestern corner. Much cooler than normal conditions are forecast in a broad belt across southern DRC from the Kasai River, a tributary of the Congo, to Lake Tanganyika. A few cool pockets are expected in northeastern Mozambique and west-central Angola. Botswana and South Africa will be moderately warmer than normal, but anomalies will be severe in Limpopo Province, SA. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in Madagascar.

In the Middle East, much of the Arabian Peninsula will be hotter than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures in central and west-central Saudi Arabia, from eastern Yemen through western Oman, and in the United Arab Emirates. Iraq will be moderately to severely warmer than normal west of the Euphrates River, but anomalies will be exceptional in the south. Exceptional anomalies will also cover much of Iran from the Persian Gulf into the center of the nation. Syria can expect moderately warmer than normal temperatures and similar conditions are forecast in pockets of southern Turkey. Much of Turkey’s northern coast will be cooler than normal and Georgia will be somewhat cooler as well.

Several regions of Central Asia will be warmer than normal with moderate to severe anomalies predicted in eastern Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and southern Kyrgyzstan. Similar temperatures are forecast in Turkistan Region in southern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. Anomalies will be more intense in Tajikistan with severe to exceptional heat anomalies. All of Asian Russia - a vast expanse from the Ural Mountains to the Chukchi Sea - will be warmer than normal, with severe to exceptional anomalies in Siberia and exceptional anomalies blanketing the Far East.

South Asia can expect warm anomalies of varying intensity throughout much of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in several areas including between Kandahar and Kabul, Afghanistan, and in far northern Pakistan and central Punjab. Temperatures in India will be warmer than normal in the northwest from Gujarat through Jammu and Kashmir and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies. Intensely hotter than normal conditions are also forecast in India’s Far Northeast. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast in Telangana, becoming severe in Andhra Pradesh and throughout the southern states. From the eastern Gangetic Plain into southern Nepal and through West Bengal and western Bangladesh, temperatures will be cooler than normal. Sri Lanka can expect severe to extreme heat anomalies.

In East Asia, China’s vast northeast will be moderately warmer than normal with conditions reaching south to Beijing. Likewise, moderate warm anomalies are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. Japan will be moderately warmer as well though anomalies will reach severe intensity in northern Honshu and in eastern Hokkaido. Some pockets of moderately warmer than normal conditions are predicted for central China and Inner Mongolia but anomalies in western China and Tibet (Xizang) will be more intense. Severe heat anomalies are forecast across much of northern Mongolia and some moderate warm anomalies in the south. In southern China, cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in Yunnan’s eastern half, reaching into neighboring southern provinces.

Much of Southeast Asia can expect near-normal temperatures but northern Vietnam is forecast to be somewhat cooler than normal, as will a pocket in north-central Cambodia. Warm anomalies are predicted for northern Myanmar and the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Throughout the Pacific region - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the small island nations, and New Guinea - heat anomalies will be intense with exceptionally hotter temperatures in many areas.

These exceptionally hotter temperatures will reach into Australia’s Top End, Northern Territory and Cape York in Far North Queensland, moderating further inland. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures will follow Australia’s east coast from Townsville in Queensland through Gippsland in eastern Victoria. In Western Australia, moderately cooler than normal conditions are forecast in the central Goldfields-Esperance region. Much of Tasmania will warmer than normal with severe anomalies overall and extreme anomalies in the south including Hobart. Exceptionally hotter that normal conditions are predicted for nearly all of South Island, New Zealand, while moderate warm anomalies are forecast for North Island. New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter than the norm.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released May 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for May 2022 through January 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued April 24 through April 30, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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