ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MAY 2022

15 May 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2022 and running through January 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 15, 2022(pdf).

United States: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will increase, encompassing the West, Rockies, Southwest, Central and Southern Plains, and into the Pacific Northwest. Deficits will downgrade in Texas and Virginia through Florida. Surpluses will persist in eastern North and South Dakota.

Canada: The forecast through July indicates vast areas of intense water deficit in the nation’s eastern half. Some pockets of deficit and of surplus are expected in southern Manitoba and Alberta. Surpluses will intensify in the North Thompson and Quesnel River Watersheds in British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through July indicates generally moderate water deficits in Baja, north-central Mexico, and Puebla. Regions with a forecast of surplus include Mexico’s Sierra Madre Occidental range and Central America.

South America: The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits across central Brazil, exceptional in Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Goiás, and the Paraná River. Deficits are also expected in central Peru and much of Chile. Surpluses are forecast in the northwestern Amazon Basin.

Europe: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will become widespread in many areas of Europe. Regions with a forecast of intense deficit include Estonia, France, eastern Czech Republic, Vatican City, and the Drava, Danube, and Oder Rivers

Africa: The forecast through July indicates water deficits across North Africa, intense in western Algeria, northern Niger, and southeastern Libya into Sudan. Surpluses are forecast in East Africa from Tanzania through South Africa. Deficits will shrink in the Horn but increase in Kenya.

Middle East: The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits in the region, intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; along the Gharraf Canal in Iraq; Fars, Kerman, and Isfahan Provinces in Iran; and from the Upper Cehan River region to the Keban Dam on the Firat River (Euphrates) in Turkey.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through July indicates water surpluses in the eastern Volga region, Middle and Lower Ob, northern Sakha, and Transbaikal. Deficits will be intense in the Yenisei’s eastern tributaries and moderate in Turkmenistan and Mangystau, Kazakhstan.

South Asia: The forecast through July indicates widespread water surpluses in India from Madhya Pradesh to the west coast, in West Bengal and neighboring states, and from southeastern Karnataka to Chennai. Deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will shrink and moderate.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia but remain widespread. Surpluses will persist in Malaysia, the Philippines, and many regions of Indonesia. Deficits will emerge in Sumatra.

East Asia: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will persist from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the Yellow River Watershed and will emerge in Yunnan. Moderate deficits will emerge in Southeast China.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread in eastern Australia from Queensland into Victoria. Exceptional deficits are forecast in Northern Territory, Tasmania, and southern New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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