United States: Water deficits in the West, SW, NW, & Plains

19 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending January 2023 indicates widespread water deficits in the U.S. West, Rockies, Southwest, Central and Southern Plains, along the East Coast from the nation’s capital through Florida, and skirting the Gulf Coast.

Anomalies will be exceptional and widespread in California and in the Lower Colorado River Basin of southern Arizona, but exceptional deficits are also predicted for many other areas of the West including southern Utah and Nevada, the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, and central Oregon.

In the Plains, deficits will be exceptional in western Nebraska and the Llano Estacado in West Texas, and severe to extreme in central Texas. Most deficits in the Central Plains States will be moderate to severe though more intense conditions are forecast in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Deficits of varying intensity are expected through the Rocky Mountain States. In the Northern Plains, normal conditions will be interrupted by widespread, severe surpluses in the Red River Watershed and severe deficits along the Missouri River.

On the East Coast, deficits of varying intensity are forecast from the D.C. region through Florida. Anomalies will be intense in northern Virginia, along the coast from North Carolina through Georgia, and in Florida from Clearwater to Fort Lauderdale. Some deficits are expected in southern Alabama and Mississippi and severe deficits across southern Louisiana.

While much of the Mississippi region, Great Lakes, and Northeast can expect near-normal water conditions, moderate deficits are forecast in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and some isolated, small pockets of surplus in the Ohio River Watershed and Northeast, including a severe pocket near Bangor, Maine.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect deficits in the central north and northeast, and surpluses near Juneau and Nome, west of Bethel, reaching from the Alaska Peninsula inland to the Kuskokwim River, and at the eastern end of the Alaska Range. Surpluses are forecast in Hawaii and moderate deficits in western Puerto Rico.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates that deficits will increase in the U.S., covering much of its western half. The West, Rockies, Southwest, Central and Southern Plains, and much of the Pacific Northwest can expect deficit anomalies. Areas with a forecast of intense deficit include central Idaho into Montana, central Utah, southeastern and far western Wyoming, central Oregon, and California’s San Joaquin Valley. Deficits in the Central and Southern Plains will be moderate to severe overall, though more intense in central Texas. Deficits in south Texas will retreat. In the Pacific Northwest, surpluses are forecast in the Cascades north of Portland. In the Northern Plains, intense deficits will follow the Missouri River, and widespread surpluses will persist in the Red River Basin of North Dakota, extending into South Dakota and Minnesota. Mixed conditions are forecast in the upper Great Lakes, and pockets of moderate surplus in the Ohio River Watershed in Ohio and from western Kentucky into Tennessee. On the East Coast, deficits will downgrade but persist from northern Virginia through Florida.

From August through October, deficits will downgrade in the West and shrink considerably in the Southern Plains and Southwest leaving near-normal conditions in New Mexico and the western half of Texas, but moderate deficits will increase in eastern Texas. Deficits on the Missouri will downgrade but severe deficits will emerge on the Arkansas River and moderate deficits will emerge in Iowa, Missouri, northern Illinois, and northern Michigan. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist from eastern North Dakota into its southern namesake. The Ohio River Basin and Northeast can expect near-normal conditions. Deficits will continue from Virginia into northern Florida, moderating overall though severe anomalies are forecast in eastern regions of the Carolinas.

The forecast for the final months – November through January – indicates deficits from Virginia through the Carolinas, and in Florida, the northern Rockies, and pockets in Louisiana, northern Michigan, and California. Surpluses will persist from eastern North Dakota into South Dakota.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Hermits Creek/Calf Canyon Fire, burning in northern New Mexico for a month, has become the largest wildfire in the state’s history. The fire has destroyed over 350 homes and scorched nearly 300,000 acres. A Federal disaster declaration was approved freeing up FEMA monies. As of 17 May, payouts amounted to $612,000. Authorities are also keeping a close watch on the Black Fire that emerged in southern New Mexico’s Gila National Forest on the 13th of the month and has increased to over 77,000 acres. Over 24 percent of the state is in the highest drought category - exceptional drought - and 79 percent in extreme drought, the second-highest intensity level.

Throughout the Red River Valley in Minnesota and North Dakota, flooding has been some of the worst in a decade. In early May, two North Dakota National Guard Black Hawk helicopters were activated to deliver one-ton sandbags in an effort to help stabilize the Bourbanis dam in Cavalier County after heavy rainfall in the region produced flooding. Flood emergencies were declared in Valley City and Harwood, North Dakota, and the city of Neche was cut off due to flooding on the Pembina River. State-wide emergencies were declared in late April due to blizzard conditions and due to flooding that damaged utility infrastructure, triggering power outages.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags