Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Widespread water surpluses observed in prior months will shrink through November. However, a broad column of surplus is forecast from southern North Dakota reaching into north-central Texas with intense anomalies in South Dakota. Other areas of surplus include eastern Nevada into western Utah, Wyoming, and California from San Francisco through the southwest. A pocket of exceptional deficit is expected in the central Everglades.
Through September, water surpluses along the Mississippi River, its tributaries, and states on the western bank of the river will moderate, but significant surpluses are forecast in a column from South Dakota through central and eastern Texas and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in many areas, particularly South Dakota. Areas of deficit include the Pacific Northwest, northwestern Minnesota, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and along the Atlantic coast in North Carolina.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent water surpluses in a wide path through the center of the country in the Mississippi River Basin and well into the Missouri, Arkansas, and Red River Basins, including exceptional anomalies in South Dakota. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Rockies, central Arizona, California, Oregon, and in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Washington, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and southeastern states.
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