United States: Widespread water deficits in the West & Texas

19 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending December indicates widespread water deficits in the western half of the U.S., along the East Coast reaching south from the nation’s capital and skirting the Gulf Coast.

Anomalies will be intense in Texas and many regions west of the Rockies. Areas of exceptional deficit include West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth Area, the Lower Colorado River Basin, California’s Central Valley, and Idaho’s Salmon River region.

Generally moderate deficits are forecast in the Central Plains States and deficits of varying intensity in the Rocky Mountain States. Though the Dakotas will see near-normal conditions overall, severe deficits are expected along the Missouri River and surpluses from Fargo to Sioux Falls.

On the East Coast, deficits of varying intensity are forecast from the D.C. region through Florida. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Delmarva Peninsula, northern Virginia, and pockets in the coastal Carolinas. In the Gulf region, some moderate deficits are expected in southern Alabama and Mississippi, but deficits will be severe in southern Louisiana.

The Ohio River Basin will see some generally mild surpluses with moderate pockets in central Tennessee and central Ohio. In the Great Lakes Region, some mild to moderate deficits are predicted in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and far northern Minnesota.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect deficits in the northeast, and surpluses near Juneau and Nome, west of Bethel, reaching from the Alaska Peninsula inland to the Kuskokwim River, and at the eastern end of the Alaska Range. Surpluses are forecast in Hawaii.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity west of the Rockies, and in Texas and parts of the Plains. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include central Texas, much of New Mexico and the Llano Estacado into West Texas, southern Utah, northern California, and Idaho’s Salmon River region. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the North Cascades of Washington, but deficits are expected elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest. In the Plains, normal conditions are forecast in the Dakotas though severe deficits will follow the Missouri River into Montana and surpluses are expected from Fargo to Sioux Falls into Minnesota. Nebraska will see moderate to severe deficits. On the East Coast, deficits are forecast in northern Virginia and from the Carolinas into Georgia’s southern half. Moderate deficits are expected in Florida around Lake Okeechobee. States in the Upper Ohio River Basin can expect some pockets of moderate surplus.

From July through September, near-normal conditions will return to New Mexico and West Texas and much of Arizona. Deficits will persist in the West and increase in the Pacific Northwest as surpluses disappear. Exceptional deficits will increase north of San Francisco and in the Snake River region of southern Idaho. Deficits on the Missouri River will intensify, becoming extreme, and severe deficits will emerge on the Arkansas River from Kansas into Colorado. Surpluses spanning the Dakotas/Minnesota border will shrink. Moderate deficits will emerge in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Deficits from Virginia through Georgia will moderate, deficits in Florida will retreat, and surpluses will emerge in the western Everglades. Moderate deficits will be widespread in eastern Texas and will emerge in central Louisiana and pockets of southern Mississippi and Alabama. Deficits will be severe from Austin, Texas to the Gulf.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates deficits in the northern Rockies and along the Missouri River through Montana, central Colorado and the Arkansas River, from Virginia into Florida, and southern Louisiana. Surpluses in the Dakotas will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Amid widespread storms across the southern US in late March including many destructive tornadoes, flooding claimed three lives in Alabama submerging a vehicle. Emergency responders rescued stranded motorists in the Birmingham area which received nearly 5 inches (130mm) of rain.

With much of New Mexico in various stages of drought, at least five wildfires have raged through 13,000 acres in the state. The largest, the Hermit’s Peak fire in Santa Fe National Forest, has consumed over 6,200 acres. In the Sierra Blanca Mountains, fire claimed two lives in the village of Ruidoso, damaged 200 homes, and forced 5,000 people to evacuate.

A mid-April blizzard in the Northern Plains dumped four feet of snow on Montana and broke the April record in Bismarck, North Dakota with drifts across the state six to ten feet in height reaching rooftops. Much of ND was under a “no travel” advisory and parts of the main east-west artery, I94, were closed for three days. One horse farm reported that seven horses were trapped by snowdrifts in a barn and covered with ice for three days.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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