Europe: Water surplus forecast for Ireland & UK

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates water deficits of varying intensity throughout much of continental Europe from the Iberian Peninsula through Central Europe and around the Baltic Sea.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Deficits will be widespread and exceptional in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Sweden and along the Norwegian Sea coast; pockets of Poland, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Austria; central France; central Ukraine; the western coast of the Black Sea; and Spain.

Moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern European Russia. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast for southern Norway and northeastern Sweden.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits in Europe will shrink and downgrade overall leaving many areas with moderate deficit or normal conditions, but widespread, severe to exceptional anomalies will persist in Finland. Severe to exceptional deficits will also persist in Estonia, Latvia, pockets of Sweden, and along the Norwegian Sea Coast. Pockets of intense deficit will persist in central Ukraine; the Ore Mountains in eastern Germany; from Munich, Germany into northwestern Austria; the Dolomite Mountains in northeastern Italy; and central France.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), and surpluses of generally similar intensity are expected in northern European Russia. A pocket of exceptional surplus will persist near Murcia along Spain’s southern Mediterranean coast. Moderate surpluses are forecast to emerge in southern Norway.

From January through March 2020, deficits will disappear or downgrade in Central and Eastern Europe, transitioning to surplus in some pockets, but will persist with intensity in Finland’s northern two-thirds, and parts of Sweden. Surpluses will moderate in Ireland and the UK, increase in southern Norway, and increase and intensify in European Russia. Primarily moderate surpluses will emerge in central and southern Germany, Switzerland into Austria, central Slovakia, northern Poland, Kaliningrad, northern Belarus, and along the Daugava River in Lithuania. Some areas of moderate deficit are forecast around the Mediterranean and in the Balkans, and severe to extreme deficits in southwestern and northeastern Spain.

The forecast for the remaining months – April through June 2020 – indicates deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, the Baltics, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and pockets around the Mediterranean and on the Iberian Peninsula. Surpluses are forecast for northern European Russia, central Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, and northern England.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 24 October 2019]
After a hot, dry summer water levels on the Rhine are returning to normal, allowing shipping companies to resume heavier loads, a boon to traders looking to avoid surcharges imposed during shallow conditions. The Vistula River running through Warsaw recorded this year’s record low in mid-August, and sailboats on the Sulejów Reservoir, a popular tourist destination, sat mired in mud as the shoreline retreated several hundred yards.

Some travelers who booked river cruises during the summer season of 2018 are now seeking compensation for being shuttled overland via more prosaic transportation made necessary by the season’s drought. At least one tour company is being sued by a couple who, having spent AUD $20,000 (US $13.6K) on what was to be a romantic wedding cruise, found themselves celebrating their nuptials bumping around Europe on buses.

Prolonged dry conditions throughout Europe this summer are creating concern in the agricultural sector. The sugar beet harvest in France, the EU’s largest producer, is projected to fall below the five-year average.

Poland, too, is forecasting lower beet yields, 13 percent less than the norm for the last five years. Overall, Poland estimates a €250 million (US $277.4 million) loss this year in agricultural products including cereals, tobacco, and vegetables. Potato shortfalls tripled prices and forced imports. The Agricultural Ministry has approved farm subsidies for installation of water retention facilities.

In Greece, Lake Koroneia’s water level dropped dramatically due to high temperatures and drought, leaving thousands of dead fish on its banks.

Torrential rain and flooding during late September and again in mid-October buckled roads and collapsed a bridge in Scotland.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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