East Asia: Water deficits forecast for DPRK, Shandong, & Anhui

18 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through July 2020 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in Northeast China.

Surpluses will also dominate a vast expanse from western Tibet (Xizang) through Qinghai, Sichuan, southern Gansu, and Shaanxi. Exceptional anomalies are forecast for western Tibet, along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River, and northern Sichuan. Anomalies will be moderate along the Lower Reaches of the Yellow (Huang He) River and severe on the eastern leg of the Ordos Loop. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Shanghai on the east coast and surpluses of lesser intensity in southern China at the intersection of Guzhou, Hunan, and Guangxi.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_12mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are expected in a vast expanse of Xinjiang Province in the west and Yunnan in the south. Primarily severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Han River Basin, a tributary of the Yangtze, and for the Shandong Peninsula in the east and northern Taiwan.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Mongolia, and extreme deficits are expected near Pyongyang, North Korea. Moderate surpluses are forecast in southern Japan, but extreme deficits in northernmost Honshu, moderating as they reach into Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that deficits of varying intensity will emerge in many parts of Mongolia. In China, exceptional deficits will persist in eastern Xinjiang and southern Yunnan, shrinking somewhat in Yunnan, and will emerge in Taiwan. Deficits will downgrade on the Shandong Peninsula but will be extreme; severe deficits are forecast from southern Henan through Anhui and Jiangsu; and deficits will increase north and east of Beijing.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

Surpluses will persist in Northeast China and a vast stretch from Tibet through the Yellow River Basin, along the Ordos Loop, and the river’s lower path. Surpluses will be exceptional in western Tibet, along the Yarlung River through Tibet, and in Sichuan. Surpluses in South and Southeast China will shrink and downgrade, leaving extreme surpluses around Shanghai. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in Fujian and moderate surpluses will increase in Guizhou.

In North Korea, deficits will downgrade but will be severe near Pyongyang, and the extent of primarily moderate deficit conditions will increase in the nation. Deficits will nearly disappear in South Korea and surpluses will increase in the southeast. In Japan, moderate surpluses are forecast for eastern Honshu.

From February through April 2020, intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and western Tibet, and widespread surpluses of varying intensity in the Yellow River Basin. Intense deficits will persist in the Shandong Peninsula and southern Yunnan and will increase in the north from Beijing into eastern Inner Mongolia. Deficits will moderate in eastern Xinjiang, and moderate deficits will emerge in southern Mongolia as more intense pockets persist in the north. Deficits will shrink and downgrade slightly in North Korea. Conditions in Southeast China, South Korea, and Japan will become nearly normal with some moderate deficits emerging in northern Honshu, Japan.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2020 – indicates that anomalies will shrink and downgrade in the region, though surpluses are forecast for Northeast China and the Yellow River Basin. Deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast in Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, and Mongolia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Mongolian reindeer herders can no longer rely on what they call “eternal ice,” a critical component of overall herd health, says one expert. Herders in the north report that between 2016 and 2018 formerly permanent ice patches melted for the first time in memory. This “eternal ice” provides respite from summer heat and insects as well as drinking water for the animals. The change could result in degradation of pasture lands.

Drought in China’s Hunan Province has reduced naval orange production by 30 percent. In Jiangxi, the drought has affected 4.87 million people and 452,100 hectares of cropland, with 82,100 hectares completely destroyed. The provincial government is investing 796 million yuan (USD $113.3 million) in drought relief. And, from mid-August through much of October rainfall in Anhui Province was 60 percent less than the normal, the second-lowest in over 50 years, affecting over 1 million residents and damaging 400,000 hectares of crops, with direct economic losses totaling 1.6 billion yuan (USD $227 million).

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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