South America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for Bahia

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Brazil including extreme to exceptional anomalies in Amapá, northern Pará, and Maranhão in the north; Mato Grosso, Goías, and western Bahia across the center of the country; and western Amazonas. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná in the south.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_12mo_panel.png

Intense anomalies are also forecast for French Guiana, eastern Suriname, and northern Venezuela reaching from Caracas. In Chile, deficits will be exceptional in much of the nation from the Atacama Desert in the north through Valparaiso and Santiago. Moderate deficits are expected in the southern Pampas of Argentina.

Surpluses are forecast for nearly all of Uruguay reaching into southern Brazil, and in much of northern Peru, pockets of central Colombia, coastal Guiana, pockets in northern Argentina, and surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake in Patagonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade across the continent, overall, but will persist, primarily in Brazil and Chile. Moderate deficits are forecast for north-central Brazil with pockets of severe to extreme deficit in Amapá, Pará, and Maranhão. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in Bahia and its smaller east coast neighbors. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in São Paulo and Paraná States. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in much of Chile. Surpluses will downgrade in Uruguay but remain widespread and severe to extreme, and will emerge in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Surpluses will increase in the northwestern corner of the continent in Colombia and across the border into Brazil, and in southern Venezuela, pockets of Ecuador, and much of northern Peru. Argentina’s northwestern provinces will continue to see surplus conditions; moderate deficits are forecast for Buenos Aires Province.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

From February through April 2020, deficits will retreat from much of the continent with the notable exception of Chile, where anomalies ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast from the northern border to Patagonia. Some moderate deficits will linger in northeastern Brazil and northern Venezuela. Surpluses will shrink and moderate from Colombia through northern Peru and in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; will nearly disappear in Uruguay; and will persist along Venezuela’s eastern coast and the western Amazon River in Brazil. Surpluses will persist in Argentina’s northwestern provinces and moderate surpluses will emerge in the northeast.

In the final quarter – May through July 2020 – normal conditions are forecast for much of the continent with deficits in northern Chile and Amapá, Brazil, and surpluses in northern Peru and northern Argentina.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Sugarcane season in Brazil’s center-south region, the country’s main sugar belt, is coming to an early close due to drier than normal conditions. By the end of October many mills had already completed crushing that would normally extend into early December. This season’s accelerated harvest pace creates a longer inter-crop period and indicates that when mills re-open next March crushing will be limited.

Chile’s long-term drought has affected avocado production, resulting in an estimated 25 percent reduction in this year’s harvest as well as a smaller fruit size. The nation’s beekeepers are reporting significant declines in honeybee populations as lack of spring rainfall stunted flower growth. Farmer’s rely on the bees to pollinate many crops and Chile was already understocked on hives last year according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization. Honey exports dropped 50 percent last season.

The lithium extraction industry in Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina is leaving many indigenous farmers without adequate water supplies. Lithium, an essential component in batteries, is harvested from massive evaporation ponds that lose up to 95 percent of the water. In drought-stricken Chile, one lithium mining company that withdrew excessive amounts of water from the limited resources in the Atacama Desert has been restrained by a $25 million compliance plan.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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