Europe: Water surplus to persist in Ireland & UK

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many parts of continental Europe.

Deficits will extend from Eastern Europe into the Balkans and large pockets of Central Europe, around the Mediterranean and on the Iberian Peninsula. Northern Europe, too, will see widespread deficits which will include exceptional anomalies in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Exceptional deficits will also cover much of Ukraine’s western half. Other areas of intense deficit include the Balkans, pockets of Sweden, the Norwegian Sea coast, southern Belgium, and surrounding Seville in southern Spain.

Surpluses are expected in Ireland, the U.K., and across the English Channel into France; Denmark and southern Norway; and European Russia. Surpluses will be widespread and will reach exceptional intensity in Ireland, the U.K., and northern European Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that deficits in Europe will shrink and downgrade overall. However, deficits will remain widespread and exceptional in Finland and intense in pockets of Sweden, coastal Norway, Estonia, and Latvia. Moderate deficits are expected in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and Italy. Much of Central Europe will return to normal water conditions with a few pockets of intense deficit and some regions transitioning to surplus. Surpluses will persist in Ireland, the U.K., and northern European Russia; will increase in Denmark and southern Norway; and will emerge in northern and northwestern France, Switzerland, and northwestern Spain. Surpluses will be intense in Wales, England, and northern European Russia.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

From February through April 2020, exceptional deficits will persist in Finland but will shrink somewhat in the south; pockets of exceptional deficit are forecast for central and northern Sweden and along Norway’s northern coast. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast in the Balkans - particularly intense in Romania - as well as in Hungary and southern Italy. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in pockets of Eastern Europe and will emerge in Spain. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast for Ireland and the U.K., northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, northern Poland, and central Slovakia. Surpluses in northern European Russia will downgrade but will be severe to extreme.

The forecast for the remaining months – May through July 2020 – indicates deficits in Finland, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, around the Mediterranean, and on the Iberian Peninsula. Surpluses are forecast for northern European Russia, central Sweden, southern Norway, the U.K., and northern France.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Europe’s 2018 drought left animal feed protein supply at a seven-year low, according to recently released statistics from the European Commission. The loss in self-sufficient supplies of feed forced increase imports of maize and soy.

This year’s olive oil production in Spain is forecast to decrease by 44 percent due to lack of rainfall. As European olive oil producers face increasingly difficult growing conditions attributed to climate change, the EU is recommending that agricultural operations adjust farming schedules, advancing or delaying seeding and harvesting to reflect changing conditions.

Torrential downpours hit the U.K. in early November causing flooding in many communities including the South Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire areas of central England. The village of Fishlake was submerged in floodwaters and the River Derwent burst its bank after a month’s worth of rain fell in one day. Weeks of exceptional rainfall has left produce rotting in soggy fields and food prices are expected to rise.

The U.K. National Trust has announced plans to re-introduce beavers into southern England next spring to aid in flood management through the natural process of beaver dams which slow, store, and clean water.

Venice, Italy experienced its worst flooding in over 50 years on November 12 when a high tide pushed water 1.87 meters (6.14 feet) above sea level. Suitcases floated on waves through St. Mark’s Square, the crypt beneath St. Mark’s Basilica was inundated, several ferries were damaged, and one death was reported. Just three days later another high tide hit the city. Venice’s tourist industry, valued at €3 billion (USD $3.3 billion) a year, is preparing for a loss as hotels report a 35 percent cancellation rate for next month’s bookings.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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