ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST FEBRUARY 2020

14 February 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2019 and running through October 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast February 14, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, eastern Texas, and northern California.

Canada: The forecast through April indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City with deficits to the south, deficits near Ottawa and Regina, and surpluses near Toronto and Calgary. Exceptional deficits are forecast for much of northern Quebec. Surpluses are forecast for southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through April indicates intense water surpluses in northeastern Sonora, Mexico. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Guerrero and Michoacán. Surpluses will shrink but persist in Central America and deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear.

South America: The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably. However, intense deficits are forecast in Amapá, Pará, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Acre, Brazil, and French Guiana, Suriname, and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for the Orinoco Delta in eastern Venezuela.

Europe: The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses will shrink in Western Europe and around the Adriatic Sea but increase in northern European Russia. Deficits will persist in Finland, the Baltics, eastern Germany, central Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and the central Balkans.

Africa: The forecast through April indicates water deficits of varying intensity across many regions in northern Africa. Exceptional deficits will retreat from the Horn. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa, downgrading slightly. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or mild deficits.

Middle East: The forecast through April indicates that widespread water surpluses in the region will shrink. However, surpluses are forecast in Syria, around Mosul, along Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast, and in southern Iran. Intense deficits are forecast from eastern Yemen into western Oman.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through April indicates widespread intense water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits are forecast for the Central Siberian Plateau, north and southeast of Lake Baikal, and in western Kazakhstan.

South Asia: The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses will dominate much of India’s breadth and will be exceptional in central Madhya Pradesh. Deficits will emerge in the Far Northeast. Intense surpluses will persist in Bangladesh and Nepal and shrink somewhat in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through April indicates persistent water deficits in Thailand and western Cambodia though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink to small pockets. Intense surpluses will persist in western Myanmar, Vietnam’s North Central Coast, and northern Mindanao.

East Asia: The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, the Yangtze Basin, Northeast China, and Tibet. Intense deficits are expected in Yunnan and Mongolia and severe deficits in Hainan. In North Korea, deficits are forecast in the northeast.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Deficits will be exceptional at the confluence of the Murray and Darling Rivers, moderate to severe from Canberra to Melbourne, and intense in Tasmania. Deficits are also forecast in northern New Zealand and in New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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