Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus will increase in Ob River Basin

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus will increase in Ob River Basin

20 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates a vast expanse of water surplus in Russia from St. Petersburg into the Western Siberian Plain with exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals.

Surpluses will be moderate to extreme in the Middle Ob River Watershed east of the Urals.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Russia from Moscow to the Caspian Sea, along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei River Watershed, and north, west, and southeast of Lake Baikal.

Surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan, and will be exceptional in Kostanay Region in Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for western and southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, much of Turkmenistan, and a few pockets in western Kyrgyzstan and in Tajikistan. Anomalies will be intense in western Kazakhstan, northern Turkmenistan into central Uzbekistan, and the Fergana Valley of eastern Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan’s southern border will see conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates widespread intense surpluses in Russia in the Northern European Plain and across the Ural Mountains into the Western Siberian Plain. The extent of exceptional surplus will diminish in the Vychegda Lowland but increase in the Ob River Watershed. Exceptional deficits will persist on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Deficits are also forecast in the Lena River Watershed. Exceptional deficits are forecast north and southeast of Lake Baikal. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in Stavropol Krai between the Black and Caspian Seas and generally mild deficits will emerge from Moscow to Volgograd.

Exceptional surpluses will persist in Kostanay in northern Kazakhstan, and intense deficits in the west along with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Intense surpluses will shrink but persist along Turkmenistan’s southern border. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan. In Tajikistan, surpluses are expected in the center of the country and deficits in the east.

From May through July, surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plateau will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread with exceptional anomalies resurging in the Vychegda Lowland. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast for some regions of the Northern European Plain and in the eastern half of the Western Siberian Plateau as transitions occur. Intense deficits will emerge northwest of Lake Baikal while those to the north retreat. Deficits will increase and intensify from Moscow to Volgograd but will diminish in Stavropol. Surpluses will shrink but persist in northern Kazakhstan and deficits in the west will shrink and downgrade. In Turkmenistan, deficits will emerge in the center of the country, and the southern border region will continue to transition. Surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan will shrink and downgrade and anomalies in Tajikistan will retreat.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates that surpluses in the Northern European Plain and Western Siberian Plain will continue to shrink and downgrade. Intense deficits are forecast for the Oka River, a tributary of the Volga, from Moscow to Nizhny Novgorod, and severe deficits on the Don River.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The Neberdhayevskoye Reservoir serving the 242,000 residents of Russia’s Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk is so depleted by the current drought that cars can traverse much of its length. The city’s population is currently purchasing bottled water for drinking and for domestic use.

Drought conditions in Stavropol Krai, Russia, between the Black and Caspian Seas may negatively impact grain production in the region. Fall 2019 precipitation in Stavropol was only half the normal, and rainfall over the past two months was merely 20 to 40 percent in some districts. Stavropol Krai’s Ministry of Agriculture reports that less than half of the area sown with grain is in good condition while 5.4 percent is in poor condition, auguring the potential for crop failure. As a precaution, regional authorities plan to double the investment in crop insurance.

A blizzard hit Nur-Sultan (Astana), the capital of Kazakhstan at the end of January, dropping enough snow on the metropolitan area of a million residents to push the January total past the previous record set 56 years ago. Dozens of highways were closed, littered with abandoned vehicles, and on the Shchuchinsk-Nur-Sultan highway 150 people simply spent the night in their cars. Those who made it home had to dig tunnels to get into their houses. Over the week-long course of the storm, 645 people had to be rescued from their vehicles. A state of emergency was declared in the capital and flights canceled at Nur-Sultan International Airport.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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