Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to persist in Thailand

20 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits throughout mainland Thailand and western Cambodia including Tonlé Sap.

Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in peninsular Thailand, parts of Laos, and southern Myanmar. Western Myanmar will see surpluses as will Vietnam’s North Central Coast and Central Highlands reaching into easternmost Cambodia.

ISciences_Southeast_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_12mo_panel.png

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia and primarily moderate deficits for eastern Sumatra with a few small, isolated pockets of moderate surplus on the island’s west coast. Deficits will reach severe intensity in pockets of Java and East Timor, but intense surpluses are expected on Flores Island. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Indonesian Borneo and intense deficits are forecast around the western shore of the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea.

In the Philippines, moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected in northeastern Luzon, and moderate deficits in the southeastern arm of the island and pockets of Mindanao.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates persistent deficits in Thailand and western Cambodia though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink to small pockets. Intense surpluses will persist in western Myanmar and surpluses of varying intensity in pockets across central Myanmar, while conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in the south as transitions occur. Other areas of transition include southern Laos, eastern Cambodia, and southeastern Vietnam where deficits will emerge. Intense surpluses will persist in Vietnam’s North Central Coast.

ISciences_Southeast_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_3mo_panel.png

Deficits will increase in peninsular Malaysia but diminish considerably in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Deficits are forecast, however, for northern and eastern Sumatra, northeastern Borneo, North Maluku, and pockets of New Guinea. Surpluses will downgrade on Flores Island, but some moderate surpluses will emerge in Java and along Borneo’s southern coast. In the Philippines, surpluses will persist in northern Luzon and increase on Mindoro. Deficits are forecast for Luzon’s southeastern arm and in Mindanao.

From May through July, anomalies in the region will downgrade and shrink overall. Severe deficits will emerge in northernmost Myanmar, and moderate to severe deficits are expected in a path from the shared border of Myanmar and Laos tracing south through western Thailand and in peninsular regions of Myanmar and Malaysia. Conditions in Cambodia will become nearly normal and moderate surpluses will emerge from Vietnam’s Central Highlands to the coast. In the Philippines, moderate deficits are expected in Mindanao. Some small pockets of surplus are forecast scattered throughout Indonesia and New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates deficits in western and southern Thailand, some island in the central Philippines, and the island of Timor. Moderate deficits are forecast in central Vietnam, Borneo, Flores Island, northern Sulawesi, and New Guinea.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
By the end of January, the Mekong River in That Phanom district of eastern Thailand had dropped to its lowest level in a decade, between 1 and 1.5 meters deep. Drought has forced boats to reduce loads and reroute goods and passengers, raising the cost of trade along the Thai-Lao border.

The federal government has designated twenty provinces as drought disaster regions. Dry conditions are expected to reduce sugar production in the nation, typically the world’s number two sugar exporter. Experts are forecasting a 28 percent drop in production with an early end to the crushing season.

Thailand’s central bank has downgraded its projections for the nation’s economic growth this year to 2 percent, citing drought as a contributing factor.

Faced with increasing saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam is stepping up mitigation efforts to protect the area’s rich agricultural sector and household water needs. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has promised more wells, piping, public water faucets, water trucks, and filtering facilities. Saltwater intrusion is expected to threaten 29,000 hectares (71,661 acres) of rice and the domestic water supply of nearly 80,000 households in the region this spring. Two provinces, Sóc Trăng and Long An, have asked the federal government for financial assistance totaling USD $66.3 million.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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