South Asia: Intense water surplus forecast for Madhya Pradesh

South Asia: Intense water surplus forecast for Madhya Pradesh

21 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates widespread water surpluses in India and Sri Lanka, and substantial areas of surplus in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Surpluses will dominate much of central India from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh and into parts of the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will also trace a wide path along the western coast from Mumbai, veering inland through Karnataka where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity. Anomalies will also be intense in India’s Far North.

All of Sri Lanka will experience surplus conditions and anomalies in the southeast will be extreme to exceptional. Moderate surpluses are expected in much of Bangladesh with more intense conditions in the Ganges Delta. Surpluses are also forecast for western Nepal; along major rivers in Pakistan and in the north; surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan, and from Kabul to Kandahar. Anomalies will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif.

Deficits are expected in Far Northeast India, primarily severe with some extreme to exceptional anomalies in central Assam. A pocket of moderate to severe deficits is forecast in northern Tamil Nadu and some relatively mild deficits are expected in northern Afghanistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will continue to dominate the breadth of India, though conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in the west along a vast path from Gujarat through northern Kerala as transitions occur. Areas of transition are also forecast for central Rajasthan. Surpluses will be exceptional in central Madhya Pradesh and pockets along west coast. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in the Far North. Deficits will emerge in the Far Northeast and in Tamil Nadu in the south.

Widespread surpluses will persist in Nepal and Bangladesh reaching extreme to exceptional intensity. Though surpluses will shrink overall in Pakistan and Afghanistan, substantial areas of surplus will persist. Intense surpluses are forecast along rivers in Pakistan and in the north. In Afghanistan, surpluses will remain exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif and, though downgrading from Kabul to Kandahar, severe to extreme anomalies are expected. Conditions in Sri Lanka will moderate or begin to transition.

From May through July, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the region with relatively normal water conditions returning to Bangladesh, most of Nepal, and the Gangetic Plain and eastern regions of India along the Bay of Bengal. Surpluses will persist in India’s Far North, from southern Gujarat through central and eastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh, and will re-emerge from transition in a long, hooked path from the Upper Reaches of the Godavari River in Maharashtra through central Karnataka, veering northeast through Andhra Pradesh. Deficits in the Far Northeast will intensify. Surpluses will persist around Mazar-e Sharif and from Kabul to Kandahar in Afghanistan, and in northern Pakistan and along northern portions of its major rivers. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Sri Lanka and along the Gandaki River in central Nepal.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates moderate surpluses in India from Gujarat along a wide path leading through the Gangetic Plain and into western Nepal, pockets in southern India and Sri Lanka, northern Pakistan, and in Afghanistan from Kabul to Kandahar along with areas of transition.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
India’s sugar production from October 2019 through January 2020 was down 24 percent from last year with both flooding and drought contributing to limited cane supply. In Maharashtra, sugar factories have been directed by the state to prioritize cane harvesting in flood-affected areas in order to reduce economic impact, though the January 21 deadline passed without evidence of full compliance. Crops in some regions were submerged for more than a month. During the current crop year, July 2019 through June 2020, agricultural land in 15 states has been impacted by flooding and 2 states reported drought impacts.

Monsoon flooding in Bangladesh triggered a record-breaking number of dengue cases from June to October 2019, straining the nation’s medical services, with 148 deaths confirmed through December by the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research.

The Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka estimates that over 71,000 people were affected by heavy rainfall and flooding in December. Damages from natural disasters costs Sri Lanka 50 billion rupees (USD $2.75 million) annually, over 60 percent due to floods., according to the World Bank.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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