Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional water deficits will emerge in Guerrero & Michoacán

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional water deficits will emerge in Guerrero and Michoacán

17 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending October indicates deficits in northern Baja, Mexico ranging from moderate to exceptional. Surpluses are forecast for the Peninsula’s northwestern corner and southern tip.

Surpluses are also forecast across the Gulf of California in northeastern Sonora and will reach exceptional intensity. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected from eastern Chihuahua through northern Coahuila, and primarily moderate deficits along Mexico’s central Gulf Coast reaching into the central states. Some moderate surpluses are forecast for coastal Michoacán on the Pacific.

In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and a few pockets elsewhere. Surpluses are also expected in central Cuba, along Haiti’s western coast, and in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora, Mexico with moderate surpluses along the lower stretches of the Yaqui River as it reaches the Gulf of California. Severe surpluses are expected around Monterrey in Nuevo León, and moderate surpluses in northwestern Durango. Other regions of surplus include Baja’s northwestern corner and southern tip, and Morelos in south-central Mexico. Exceptional deficits will emerge across the border of Guerrero and Michoacán on the Pacific, moderate deficits in the Yucatán Peninsula with some intense deficits in Quintana Roo, and moderate deficits in southeastern Chihuahua. Deficits of varying intensity will persist, though shrink, along the central Gulf Coast.

Surpluses are forecast in many regions of Central America some areas of transition along the Pacific. Deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean and surpluses are forecast in central Cuba, near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and for the central Bahamas.

From May through July, nearly normal water conditions are expected in many parts of the region. However, intense surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Deficits in southeastern Chihuahua will intensify, and moderate deficits will emerge in neighboring Coahuila and on the Baja Peninsula. Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for central Cuba and near Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates deficits in Baja, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, and Hidalgo, and surpluses in Sonora. Surpluses are also forecast for northern Costa Rica, central Cuba, and Port-au-Prince Bay in Haiti.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Mexico’s water authority, CONAGUA, reports that 119 municipalities in the state of Veracruz remained at some level of drought in mid-January with 16 categorized in extreme drought. The 350 livestock producers in the northern region of the state are increasingly concerned about the prospect of cattle deaths due to extremely low water levels in local dams.

The state lost 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) of sugar cane in 2019 to the drought and 20,000 hectares (49,421 acres) of various crops were damaged during the 2019/2020 season. The catastrophic agricultural insurance program administered by the state has distributed 70 million pesos (USD $3,745,140) in compensation.

The state government of Sonora, Mexico has earmarked 69 million pesos (USD $3,701,847) to repair roads damaged by flooding and landslides in November of last year.

The U.S.-Mexico border wall being erected as part of the Trump administration’s effort to deter immigration is likely to require flood gates to prevent seasonal monsoon flooding. Without the gates, the wall’s posts trap debris and can increase flooding, but installing the gates could leave stretches of the border penetrable when gates are open.

January brought heavy rainfall to Guatemala that produced flooding in Izabel and Alta Verapaz Departments in Guatemala. The National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) reports that over 3,500 people were affected.

Anticipating water shortages due to a long-term drought forecast, Jamaica’s National Water Commission has instituted water restrictions on corporate users. Corporate customers can expect low water flow or no water nightly between 9:30pm and 5:00am.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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