South America: Water deficits in Brazil will shrink

17 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates many large pockets of exceptional water deficit throughout central Brazil in Mato Grosso, Pará, Goías, northern Minas Gerais, western Bahia, Tocantins, and in Piauí and Amapá. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in many other regions of the country.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_12mo_panel.png

Intense deficit anomalies are also forecast for French Guiana, Suriname, central Chile surrounding Santiago and Valparaiso, and pockets of northern Chile. Deficits will be exceptional along the Paraná River as it flows through southern Brazil and eastern Paraguay. Deficits along the Paraguay River will be extreme through Paraguay and severe in Argentina.

Other areas of deficit include northern Venezuela from the Colombian border to Caracas; southeastern Venezuela; pockets of Peru including exceptional anomalies east of Lima; central Bolivia; and, Mendoza, San Luis, and San Juan Provinces in northwestern Argentina, and the southern Pampas.

Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast for the Orinoco Delta in northeastern Venezuela, pockets along Brazil’s northeastern coast, north-central Peru, and the northern border of Peru and Bolivia. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Argentina’s northwestern provinces of La Rioja and Catamarca, and surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake in Patagonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates that the extent of deficits in the region will shrink considerably overall. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for eastern Brazil with a few small pockets of surplus in the northeast. Deficits are forecast in central, northern, and western patches of the country with intense anomalies in pockets of Amapá, Pará, Amazonas, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Exceptional deficits will increase in French Guiana, and severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for neighboring Suriname.

ISciences_South_America_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_3mo_panel.png

Elsewhere on the continent, deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Chile and will include exceptional anomalies near Concepción and Los Angeles in the center of the country and much of the Atacama Desert in the north, though conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are also forecast in the Atacama as transitions occur. Other areas of deficit include western and southern Venezuela; a pocket around the city of Piura in northern Peru, and the Ucayali region along the central border with Brazil; central and southern Bolivia; along the central bulk of Argentina’s border with Chile; and, San Luis Province and eastern Buenos Aires Province in Argentina.

Surpluses are forecast for the Orinoco Delta in eastern Venezuela; pockets in northeastern Brazil; small pockets in western Columbia and along its central border with Ecuador; north-central Peru; pockets of eastern Paraguay and northeastern Argentina; and northwestern Argentina.

From May through July, conditions on much of the continent will normalize. However, exceptional deficits are forecast for Bolivia’s southern tip and severe to extreme deficits in the center of the country. Deficits are also forecast for northern Suriname, south-central Colombia, Peru, northern Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil, pockets of northern Chile and into Argentina, and eastern Buenos Aires Province in Argentina. Surpluses are expected in pockets of northeastern Brazil, north-central Peru, southern Paraguay into northeastern Argentina, and in northwestern Argentina.

In the final quarter – August through October – deficits will increase somewhat, particularly in Peru, Ecuador, and Columbia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in southeastern Brazil has produced flooding and landslides in the state of Minas Gerais that has killed at least 47 people. Belo Horizonte, the region’s capital, recorded its highest 24-hour rainfall since record-keeping began over a century ago. Floodwaters were so powerful that a portion of the city’s pavement exploded as geysers shot up. Many victims perished in landslides that easily tore through hillside neighborhoods.

Subsequent storms ripped through the neighboring state of Espírito Santo, raising the death toll to 62.

High temperatures and dry conditions have triggered wildfires in Chile’s Bío Bío Province. More than 1,250 hectares have been destroyed, including parts of the Nonguén Nature Reserve.

Persistent drought in Chile has negatively impacted copper production. The Los Bronces Mine, owned by Anglo America, reports a 13-5 per cent decline in 4th quarter 2019 output due to drought-reduced water availability.

In the context of the country’s persistent drought, the Chilean government has asked water-intensive companies to reduce consumption by 10 percent and to increase efficiency.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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