Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook March 2020

3 March 2020

OVERVIEW
The March 2020 Outlook indicates many areas with a forecast of much warmer than normal temperatures, particularly from Eastern Europe across Russia extending through Japan. Drier than normal conditions are forecast for southern Brazil, Madagascar, and Sri Lanka.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Brazil’s southern states of São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul can expect dry anomalies ranging from moderate to exceptional. Much of the eastern bulk of the nation will be somewhat wetter than normal with severe anomalies in Tocantins, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Across the northern arc of the continent, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana will be moderately drier than the norm as will northern Colombia, though conditions may be severe east of Medellin, Colombia. Likewise, primarily moderate dry anomalies are forecast for southern Peru, central Chile, northern Argentina, eastern Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter than normal conditions are expected in central Peru tracing the Cordillera Central Mountains.

In Central America, Panama will be drier than normal and similar anomalies are expected in pockets throughout Central America. Southeastern Nicaragua will be moderately wetter than the norm.

Alaska stands out on the map with wetter than normal conditions forecast for much of the state reaching exceptional intensity around Kotzebue Sound north of the Seward Peninsula. Elsewhere in North America, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast for western Wyoming, and moderate wet anomalies in Canada spreading from both the western and eastern shores of Hudson Bay.

A vast expanse of wetter than normal conditions will stretch from Scandinavia across much of northern Russia and will include severe anomalies in the Central Siberian Plateau. Relatively normal precipitation is expected in Europe with some moderate wet anomalies in central Austria.

In Africa, Madagascar will be drier than normal with anomalies ranging from moderate to extreme. Across the channel to mainland Africa, severe dry anomalies are forecast for northern Mozambique, Malawi, and in a path through northern Zambia. East Africa will continue to see wetter than normal conditions in southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. Along Africa’s west coast, northern Morocco will be moderately drier than normal while Sierra Leone and northern Liberia will be wetter. Some pockets of moderate dry anomalies are expected in Central Cameroon and southern Chad.

Conditions in Saudi Arabia are expected to be moderately drier than normal as well as in western Turkmenistan and northwestern Kazakhstan.

In South Asia, central Afghanistan will be wetter than the norm with anomalies reaching across the border into Punjab and Haryana, India. Wetter than normal conditions are also forecast in southern India in Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and reaching north through Chhattisgarh and Odisha. India’s Far Northeast can expect some moderate dry anomalies. Southern Bangladesh will be moderately wetter than the norm with conditions reaching into West Bengal, India.

China’s forecast includes moderate wet anomalies in Guizhou in the south and Fujian in the southeast while Tibet (Xizang) can expect varied anomalies, drier and wetter. Dry anomalies are forecast for pockets of Japan and Southeast Asia and throughout the Philippines. Eastern Indonesia and New Guinea will be wetter than normal as will northwestern Australia where anomalies will be exceptional.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Temperatures are forecast to be much warmer than normal from Eastern Europe into Scandinavia and across all of Russia. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Eastern European Russia, much of northern Kazakhstan, and from the eastern half of the Central Siberian Plateau south through Primorsky on the Sea of Japan. Japan, too, will see exceptional anomalies, and severe to extreme warm anomalies will reach into Northeast China and encompass the Korean Peninsula.

Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Europe with severe anomalies in the western Iberian Peninsula, southern Italy, the Balkans, Romania, and Bulgaria.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In North Africa, Morocco and Algeria will be warmer than normal with pockets of extreme anomalies. West Africa can expect warm anomalies ranging from moderate to extreme with exceptional anomalies in Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and western regions of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Similar conditions are forecast in nations along the Gulf of Guinea with intense anomalies in coastal Côte d'Ivoire, central Cameroon into western Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and western Gabon.

Warmer than normal temperatures are also forecast for the Horn of Africa with exceptional anomalies in Somaliland and Somalia. Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, and east-central Uganda will be somewhat cooler than normal. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are expected in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), northeastern Angola well into Zambia, and pockets in northern and southern Mozambique and Western and Northern Cape, South Africa. Warm anomalies will be intense in western and northern Madagascar and in a small pocket on Angola’s southern coast. North-central Namibia will be cooler than the norm as will a pocket in DRC west of Lake Tanganyika.

In the Middle East, Yemen will be exceptionally hotter than normal, and severe warm anomalies are forecast across the border in south-central Saudi Arabia. Eastern Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan can expect moderate warm anomalies with some more intense areas in eastern Turkey. In Central Asia, warm anomalies in Kazakhstan will be intense, as mentioned previously, and in south-central Kyrgyzstan, but moderate anomalies are forecast for Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

A few pockets of intense warm anomalies are forecast in South Asia: from northernmost Pakistan into Ladakh (formerly eastern Jammu and Kashmir); in the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka; and nearby in Sri Lanka. Nepal, Bhutan, and eastern Uttar Pradesh, India will be cooler than normal.

Moderate warm anomalies are predicted for many areas of China including the southeast, but anomalies will be severe in Hainan and Taiwan and in Jiangsu and Shanghai. Warm anomalies will be reach extreme to exceptional intensity in Northeast China and th Korean Peninsula, and in central Qinhai and Tibet’s (Xizang) western tip. Japan will be exceptionally warmer than normal.

Warm anomalies are forecast throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific and will be extreme to exceptional in many areas including Cambodia, central Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Guinea. Intense warm anomalies will reach into Australia’s northernmost regions of Top End and the Cape York Peninsula and along Queensland’s coast to Brisbane. Tasmania will be moderately warmer than normal. Extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for New Caledonia.

Much of northern South America will be warmer than normal including intense anomalies in central Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, western Bolivia, and pockets of Colombia, Peru, and northern Chile. Conditions will also be much warmer than normal in Panama, Costa Rica, western Honduras, Guatemala, and Jamaica, while Cuba and the Bahamas will be moderately warmer than normal.

States along Mexico’s central Pacific coast can expect exceptional warm anomalies. Conditions in the north-central region of the country will be moderately to severely warmer than normal. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast along the southern Pacific coast around the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The eastern half of the U.S. will be warmer than normal with moderate anomalies overall; severe anomalies around the Great Lakes and through Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire; and extreme anomalies along a stretch of the East Coast through Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern New Jersey. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for Colorado; and, north-central Alaska near Barrow will be somewhat warmer than the norm. In Canada, severe warm anomalies are forecast covering all of Ontario, and moderate warm anomalies to the west and east in Manitoba and Quebec.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released March 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for March 2020 through November 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued February 23 through February 29, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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