East Asia: Water surplus forecast for the Yellow & Yangtze Basins

21 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through October indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in Northeast China, in the Yellow River Basin (Huang He), and in western Tibet (Xizang).

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_12mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are expected in western Inner Mongolia with deficits of varying intensity in Mongolia. Deficits will also be intense in Xinjiang in western China, particularly in the Taklimakan Desert.

Deficits ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast for southeastern China in Fujian and Guangdong, with a pocket of exceptional deficit forecast in northern Taiwan. Yunnan, too, can expect deficits.

On the Korean Peninsula, a few pockets of deficit are forecast in the north and some moderate surpluses in the southeast. Japan can expect surpluses in eastern Honshu including Tokyo, and moderate deficits in western Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates widespread surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, moderate to severe in the Lower and Middle regions but reaching exceptional intensity in the Yellow’s Upper Basin. Surpluses are forecast in Tibet which will be exceptional in central Tibet and along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River, and intense surpluses are forecast for Northeast China. Surpluses will be widespread in the Yangtze River Basin as well, moderate to severe near Shanghai and in Jiangxi and Hunan, but more intense in the Upper Yangtze Basin.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_3mo_panel.png

Deficits are forecast for Yunnan and Hainan in the south, northern Inner Mongolia, and the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang in the west. Deficits will be exceptional in Yunnan. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for a vast block of north-central Mongolia including Ulaanbaatar. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are expected in western Inner Mongolia, southern Mongolia, and Xinjiang as transitions occur. On the Korean Peninsula, deficits are forecast in northeastern North Korea, and some pockets of moderate surplus in the center of the country and in southeastern South Korea. Primarily normal water conditions are expected in Japan.

From May through July, surpluses will nearly disappear in the Yangtze Basin, will shrink considerably in Northeast China, and will shrink in the Yellow River Basin and Tibet but remain widespread. Deficits will shrink and downgrade overall though exceptional anomalies are expected to re-emerge from areas of transition in western Inner Mongolia and in Xinjiang. Deficits in Yunnan will shrink and moderate. While deficits are expected to diminish considerably in Mongolia, extreme anomalies are forecast for Ulaanbaatar. Nearly normal water conditions will return to the Korean Peninsula though some moderate deficits will persist south of Pyongyang. Some patches of primarily moderate deficit will emerge in northern Honshu, Japan, and increase in Hokkaido.

The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in the Upper Yellow River Watershed and central Tibet, and deficits in western Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Yunnan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Fifteen rivers in drought-stricken Yunnan Province in southern China have stopped flowing altogether, according the Chinese Embassy in Thailand, and an equal number of reservoirs in the region are drying up. Drinking water shortages currently affect 290,000 people and 100,000 livestock.

Among agricultural impacts, lack of water is affecting the size of tomatoes grown in Yunnan. Adding to the province’s drought concerns, tons of produce are rotting in the fields since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in China as quarantines and travel restrictions strangle transportation and shrink the agricultural workforce. Fearing viral transmission, international markets have curtailed imports.

Heavy rainfall in Guangxi, China has affected 60,000 people. Flooding blocked travel in remote regions, 2,400 people were evacuated, 153 homes destroyed and close to 700 others damaged. “Jiu Ma Hua Shan,” a famous natural attraction along the Li River where the weathered rock of a cliff face resembles a mural of horses, was nearly submerged.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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