ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST APRIL 2020

15 April 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in January 2020 and running through December 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List April 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will shrink overall but persist in several wide-reaching areas: the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, and from Oklahoma through Tennessee and south through Mississippi. Anomalies will be intense in South Dakota. Deficits are forecast in Florida and in the West.

Canada: The forecast through June indicates water surpluses near Toronto and Calgary, and deficits for Winnipeg, Regina, and Vancouver Island. Deficits will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread in the north, and surpluses will emerge in the Gatineau River Watershed. Surpluses will increase in southeastern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will persist in northwestern Mexico and around Monterrey in Nuevo Leon. Deficits will persist in southeastern Chihuahua. Surpluses will shrink but persist in pockets of Central America.

South America: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Intense deficits are forecast in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; and French Guiana and Suriname. Surpluses are forecast in pockets of eastern Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will diminish in Central Europe and will shrink and moderate in Ireland and the United Kingdom. Intense deficits are forecast from Finland through eastern Bulgaria, and deficits of varying intensity in Central and Eastern Europe and from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.

Africa: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in western North Africa, increase and be exceptional across northern Niger and eastern North Africa, and retreat from the Horn. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink and downgrade but will remain widespread in Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in the region will shrink overall, but persist from central Turkey through Syria, northeastern Iraq, western Iran, the Caspian Coast, and Iranian provinces near the Persian Gulf. Exceptional deficits will increase in central Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in Northern European Russia will downgrade somewhat but surpluses will increase, reaching east to the Yenisei River Watershed. Intense deficits are expected in western Kazakhstan north of the Caspian Sea.

South Asia: The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses in India will shrink leaving nearly normal conditions in the east. Surpluses will persist, however, in many regions including central India, the Far North, and the Gangetic Plain; and, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Deficits will emerge in India’s Far Northeast.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade, particularly in Thailand where exceptional deficits will moderate. In Cambodia, a pocket of extreme deficit will persist north of Tonlé Sap. Areas of surplus include western Indonesian Borneo and western Java.

East Asia: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will retreat in the Lower and Middle Yangtze Basin, transitioning to moderate deficits in the Lower Basin. Surpluses will increase in the Pearl River Basin and Southeast China. Deficits will emerge in eastern Mongolia, and Honshu and Hokkaido, Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses of varying intensity will emerge in the Murray-Darling Basin of southeastern Australia. Deficits will shrink in southern New Zealand, increase in the north, and shrink and moderate in New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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