Africa: Water surplus to increase in Ethiopia

22 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2021 indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Equatorial Guinea through western Gabon, southwestern Namibia, and coastal Somalia near Mogadishu where water conditions may be in transition as well.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202002-202101_12mo_twitter.png

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in pockets of coastal West Africa and in nations along the Gulf of Guinea; the central Congo River Basin; southern Zambia; Zimbabwe; Malawi; parts of Mozambique; Madagascar’s west-central coast; Swaziland; and Northern Cape, Western Cape, and KwaZulu Natal in South Africa.

Widespread surpluses are expected in East Africa and will especially intense in Tanzania; western Kenya; and along the Victoria Nile through Uganda. Widespread surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast in Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, southern Sudan and along the White Nile. Other areas of surplus include a band south of the Sahel; the capital regions of the Congos; west-central Angola; South Africa from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape; and Madagascar’s northern tip.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202002-202101_3mo_twitter.png

The forecast through July indicates that deficits will moderate in western North Africa, though exceptional pockets are forecast; will emerge in eastern North Africa, transitioning from scattered surpluses; and will retreat from the Horn of Africa. Normal conditions will return to many areas of the Sahel and to the south, but pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast in northern Nigeria and south-central Chad. Surpluses in East Africa will remain widespread and surpluses will increase in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan. Other areas of surplus include northeastern Gabon, the capital regions of the Congos, west-central Angola, and South Africa from southern Orange Free State through Lesotho and central Eastern Cape. Other areas of deficit include Equatorial Guinea reaching north into Cameroon and south through western Gabon; south-central Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); pockets of northern Mozambique; Swaziland and nearby regions in South Africa; and much of Madagascar’s western coast where anomalies could be intense.

From August through October, deficits across North Africa will shrink and moderate, with pockets of surplus re-emerging in Egypt. Some moderate deficits are forecast in coastal West Africa and deficits in southern Cameroon will intensify. Generally moderate deficits will persist in South Africa near Swaziland but deficits emerging in Northern Cape will be more intense. Surpluses will persist in a vast region from southern Sudan and Eritrea through Tanzania. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a band south of the Sahel and in westernmost DRC, and surpluses in western Angola will begin to transition. Surplus anomalies will persist in Orange Free State and Eastern Cape, South Africa.

The forecast for the final quarter – November through January – indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the east but remain widespread. Deficits will decrease in western North Africa, increase in eastern North Africa and West Africa, and conditions in the south will normalize.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
As the rains in East Africa persist, the death toll from flooding and landslides continues to rise. In Kenya, 237 people have died and 161,000 households forced to relocate. A landslide triggered by heavy rainfall claimed 12 lives in Ethiopia, displacing 50,000. In Rwanda, 65 deaths have been reported, 11,000 others affected, and 1,000 hectares of crops destroyed. Flooding in central Somalia left 24 dead and 400,000 displaced.

Persistent rainfall in Uganda since October pushed the water level in Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest fresh water lake, to a record high of 13.42 meters on 7 May. In mid-April, the nation suffered a blackout as two of its largest hydropower dams got clogged by papyrus from floating mats sucked into the turbines, reducing grid capacity by 20 percent.

As many parts of the African continent face not just flooding but drought, locusts, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the combination of these threat multipliers is exacting a heavy toll in lives and money. The World Bank hs approved US$500 million to combat the devastating effects of locusts on food security in Africa and the European Union has committed US$128.6 million to address food security and health care.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags