Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2020

4 June 2020

OVERVIEW
The June Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in a number of places throughout the world including southern China, the Philippines, and parts of Southeast Asia and Indonesia. Precipitation anomalies will be, overall, moderate and less extensive. Wet anomalies include a wide band across the breadth of Brazil and into Bolivia and Paraguay.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, a wide path of moderate wet anomalies pocked with conditions of greater intensity are forecast in a belt across Brazil from the western Amazon Basin to the easternmost states. Wet anomalies will reach through half of Bolivia, Paraguay, and into Brazil’s southern states. Peru can expect exceptional surpluses in its southeastern region of Madre de Dios bordering Bolivia and intense anomalies scattered throughout the Cordillera Oriental Mountains in the northeast. Some moderate wet anomalies are expected in a scattered path tracing the Andes through Colombia and Ecuador. Extreme surpluses are expected at the opposite end of the continent in southern Patagonia.

A path of primarily moderate dry anomalies will form down the center of Colombia reaching beyond its southern border. Dry anomalies will also trace a path through the western Andes in Peru. Argentina’s northwest corner will be moderately drier than normal.

Precipitation is expected to be relatively normal in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean with some moderate dry anomalies skirting Mexico’s central Pacific Coast.

Much of the U.S. will see relatively normal precipitation with some moderately wetter conditions in central Texas, southwestern Colorado into northwestern New Mexico, and central Idaho. Alaska’s northern coast will be moderately drier than normal. In Canada, moderate wet anomalies are forecast for western Ontario reaching across the border into Manitoba past Winnipeg, and between Edmonton and Calgary in Alberta.

In Europe, conditions will be somewhat drier than normal in Ireland and Scotland. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast around the western Mediterranean in pockets of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Sardinia, and into Italy through Tuscany.

Moderate wet anomalies will skirt parts of Africa’s northern coastal regions in northern Morocco and northern Tunisia. Wet anomalies are also forecast in southern Republic of the Congo but will be much more intense, downgrading as they radiate into neighboring nations. East Africa can expect wet and dry anomalies, particularly in Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya. Dry anomalies are forecast for the Ethiopian Highlands and southern Ethiopia and will reach extreme intensity in some pockets. South Africa’s northern region will be moderately drier than normal.

Anomalies in the Middle East will exhibit a complex patchwork overall, often of uncertain magnitude. Central Turkey will be moderately wetter than normal.

In Central Asia, moderate dry anomalies are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and pockets of central and southern Kazakhstan. Russia can expect moderate dry anomalies in Siberia. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast in the Lower Volga, Tom, and Upper Yenisei River Basins, and north of Lake Baikal.

Wet anomalies will dominate much of western India and will be severe to extreme in Gujarat. The nation’s Far Northeast, however, will be much drier than normal, as will Bhutan. Pakistan can expect wetter than normal conditions in Punjab with anomalies ranging from moderate to severe.

In East Asia, relatively normal conditions are forecast for Japan and the Korean Peninsula. The forecast for China includes widespread wet anomalies, primarily moderate, in the Upper Yellow River Watershed (Huang He). In the Yangtze Watershed, severe wet anomalies are expected in the lower region, moderate wet anomalies in the middle, dry anomalies in the upper through Yunnan, and wet again as the river reaches Qinghai. Southeast China will be dryer than normal including Hainan and Taiwan.

The forecast for Southeast Asia includes exceptionally dryer than normal conditions in northern Myanmar and dry anomalies of varying intensity in Vietnam’s narrows. Wet anomalies are expected in parts of Thailand, much of Cambodia, southern Vietnam, and many regions of Malaysia and Indonesia. Anomalies will be primarily moderate.

Relatively normal conditions are forecast for eastern Australia and for New Zealand. Moderate dry anomalies are expected in South Australia and in Western Australia, though anomalies may be severe from Perth past Busselton in the southwest.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Southern China can expect much warmer than normal temperatures with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity in many regions including the Pearl River Basin, Hainan, Taiwan, and Yunnan. Warm anomalies of generally lesser intensity are forecast in the west and north in Tibet (Xizang), Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, with moderate anomalies reaching into south-central Mongolia. On the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will be moderately warmer than normal but anomalies in South Korea are expected to be severe. Anomalies will also be severe in southern Japan, moderating in the northern half of the nation.

Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast from Southeast Asia through Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. Anomalies will be exceptional in Myanmar, northern Thailand and Laos, much of the Philippines, and many regions of Indonesia.

Australia can expect normal temperatures in the vast Outback and much of the south, but warm anomalies are forecast in the east through most of Queensland with severe anomalies along the coast and moderate anomalies reaching into eastern New South Wales. Warm anomalies are also forecast for Top End in Northern Territory, and in the western portion of Western Australia. In New Zealand, severe warm anomalies are forecast for South Island.

Much of India’s Central Highlands and Gangetic Plain will be somewhat cooler than the norm with similar conditions reaching into western Nepal. However, extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast in India’s Far Northeast and severe warm anomalies in the nation’s southern tip. Nearby in Sri Lanka, exceptional anomalies are expected. Elsewhere in South Asia, cool anomalies are forecast in northern Pakistan from Lahore to Islamabad and warm anomalies in the south that will be exceptional around Karachi. Afghanistan can expect some areas with warm anomalies as well.

The vast expanse of northern Russia will be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in Novaya Zemlya, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean; severe to extreme anomalies in the eastern Yenisei River Watershed; and severe to exceptional anomalies in the far east past the Lena River. South-central Russia in the region of the Upper Yenisei will be somewhat cooler than normal. In Central Asia, severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for Turkmenistan, severe anomalies in Uzbekistan, and moderate anomalies in southwestern Kazakhstan and in Tajikistan. Northeastern Kyrgyzstan will be moderately cooler than normal.

In the Middle East, the bulk of central Iran can expect intense warm anomalies as can much of the southern Arabian Peninsula. Northern Iraq will be moderately cooler than normal from Kirkuk to Baghdad, and cool anomalies are expected along Turkey’s north-central coast.

Exceptionally hotter than normal conditions are forecast across the Sahara in northern Africa, moderating through the Sahel. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in coastal nations in the west from Senegal around the Gulf of Guinea to Gabon with exceptional anomalies in many regions including all of Liberia and much of southern Nigeria. Warm anomalies are forecast for pockets in the Horn of Africa and will be exceptional in Somaliland. Temperatures will be cooler than normal in pockets of South Sudan, Uganda, southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and western Kenya. Generally mild to moderate warm anomalies are forecast in pockets of southern Africa. Moderate anomalies will be widespread in South Africa; some severe anomalies are forecast for southern Mozambique and northern Madagascar; and, a pocket of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures is forecast in north-central Namibia.

In Europe, Scandinavia can expect to be moderately warmer than normal. Relatively normal temperatures are forecast for many remaining parts of Europe with moderate warm anomalies in the Netherlands, Switzerland, Romania, southwestern France, and Sardinia. Parts of the Apennines in Italy will be somewhat cooler than normal as will a pocket in southern Aragon, Spain.

Much of South America’s northern half will be warmer than normal. Anomalies will be exceptional following the Andes as far as southern Bolivia and in other areas including the Guiana Highlands of Venezuela. Anomalies in the Amazon Basin of Brazil will be primarily severe with large pockets of extreme to exceptional anomalies in southern Pará and western Amazonas. Temperatures will be normal in the center of the continent surrounding Paraguay. Some warm anomalies are expected in northern Chile and across the border into Argentina, as well as in northern Patagonia.

Central America and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal overall with intense anomalies along Panama’s Caribbean Coast and into Costa Rica, and in western Cuba and the Bahamas. Western Mexico will also be warmer than normal from the Gulf of California through Guadalajara and the forecast includes intense anomalies. The northern Yucatan will be moderately warmer than normal, and severe warm anomalies are forecast for Chiapas in the south.

Roughly half of the contiguous U.S. can expect normal temperatures. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are expected in parts of the Central Plains, Southwest, and Wisconsin and Michigan in the Upper Midwest. Southwestern Mississippi will see severe to extreme warm anomalies. Warm anomalies are forecast for Alaska: moderate in the south but severe to extreme in the north. In Canada, relatively normal temperatures are forecast in the provinces but the far northern territories will be warmer than the norm.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for June 2020 through February 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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