South America: Intense water deficits on the Paraguay River

19 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates nearly normal water conditions in roughly half of the continent’s extent, though deficits of varying intensity are forecast in every nation.

Across the northern arc of the continent, exceptional deficits are expected in French Guiana and into Suriname where anomalies will downgrade, moderating through southern Guyana. Deficits will be extreme to exceptional in northwestern and southern Venezuela, and severe in Colombia’s eastern and southwestern reaches. Deficits of varying intensity are expected throughout the bulk of central Peru.

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In Brazil, scattered surpluses are forecast in the east and normal conditions in much of the eastern Amazon Basin. Deficits of varying intensity will dominate the central and southern states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Exceptional anomalies will be especially widespread in Mato Grosso do Sul. Deficits are also forecast in the western Amazon Basin.

In the southern half of the continent, deficits are forecast throughout much of Chile and will be exceptional in many regions including Valparaiso and Santiago. Deficits will also be exceptional in eastern Bolivia and its southernmost tip. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in central and eastern Paraguay and into much of northern Argentina. Conditions in the Argentine Pampas will be relatively normal with surpluses in northern La Pampa Province. Surpluses are also forecast for Argentina’s northwestern provinces of La Rioja and Catamarca, deficits in much of Patagonia, and surpluses in the Southern Patagonian Ice Field.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade overall. Significant areas of deficit are forecast in western and northeastern Colombia, northwestern Venezuela, Suriname, and French Guiana. The northern portion of the Amazon Basin in Brazil will transition from deficit to moderate surplus or normal conditions. Surpluses will increase in eastern Brazil and emerge in southern Pará. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western Amazonas and Acre, and from Rondônia through Mato Grosso, southern Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and south through coastal Santa Catarina. Deficits will be intense in central Peru and through the Peruvian Andes. Bolivia can expect deficits of varying intensity, and the extent of exceptional deficits in Chile will shrink. Deficits on the Paraguay River through its namesake will remain exceptional, downgrading past the border, and conditions on the Paraná River will normalize. Surpluses will persist in the central Argentine Pampas and the country’s northwestern provinces; deficits in the north and south will downgrade.

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From September through November, anomalies will shrink and downgrade considerably. Deficits will remain widespread in the bulk of central Peru. Areas with a forecast of generally moderate deficit include southern French Guiana; a pocket in north-central Venezuela; southern Columbia; western Amazonas, Acre, and the intersection of Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Paraná in Brazil; and central Chile. Deficits in northern Chile will be intense. Some surpluses will persist in Brazil’s eastern tip, normalizing elsewhere in the country, and surpluses are also forecast for a pocket in southern Peru, northwestern Argentina, and the Southern Patagonian Ice Field.

In the final quarter – December through February – normal conditions are forecast for much of the continent with some areas of moderate surplus in eastern and northern Brazil and central Bolivia. Mild to moderate deficits are expected in many regions of Chile and scattered pockets of other western nations. Exceptional deficits will persist in southernmost Bolivia, continuing along the norther border of Chile and Argentina.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Agricultural forecasters are revising estimates of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, the winter harvest, due to drought in several regions. In the most severely affected state, Paraná, where the drought is the worst in 30 years, projections indicate that production will fall by 15.3 percent. Mato Grosso do Sul will likely see a 9.7 percent drop.

Low water levels on the Paraná River continue to hamper grain transport in Argentina. The river fell to a 50-year low in April, and as recently as 17 June a cargo vessel ran aground as it approached the port city of Rosario. With reduced loads, grain exporters are facing losses of $244 million as of mid-May.

Drought has impeded copper processing at several operations in central Chile. In April, processing was reduced at the El Teniente mine operated by Codelco when the reservoir supplying the mine’s water dropped to 25 percent, and in May operations at the Sewell mill were reduced. At Anglo-American’s Los Bronco mine, production fell 25 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of 2020.

Chile’s 2019/2020 season grape exports ended 7.6 percent lower, with drought a contributing factor.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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