Europe: Water deficits will persist in many regions

18 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Deficits will be especially widespread and intense in Northern Europe including Estonia, Latvia, Finland, and central Sweden. Deficits will be exceptional in much of Estonia and Latvia.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_12mo_twitter.png

Primarily moderate to severe deficits are expected from Lithuania through Belarus, western Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria. Deficits will also be moderate to severe throughout the Netherlands and Belgium, many parts of Germany, and from southern Austria through the northern Balkan nations. The forecast for southern Peloponnese, Greece is for moderate deficits though intense surpluses are forecast nearby in Athens. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for many regions in Italy and anomalies will be exceptional in the Dolomite Mountains, south of Naples, and pockets of Sicily and Sardinia. Northern and central France can expect primarily moderate deficits.

In Ireland and the U.K., deficits may be severe and conditions will include transitional areas. Some surpluses are forecast in the Scottish Highlands and the East Midlands and Essex regions of England. Eastern Spain will also see surpluses which will be exceptional in the Region of Murcia. Widespread surpluses are expected in northern European Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through August indicates that intense deficits will persist around the Baltic Sea but deficits will shrink and downgrade in Eastern Europe. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Central Europe, the northern Balkan nations, and Italy, with a few small pockets of greater intensity. In Ireland and the U.K., widespread severe to extreme deficits will emerge as the region transitions from surplus. Surpluses in northern European Russia will shrink and downgrade but exceptional anomalies will persist on the Severnaya Dvina River. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Spain and will increase in northern Portugal. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Spain’s Murcia Region, near Barcelona, and from the Upper Tagus River Basin to Valencia on the coast. Surpluses are also forecast along Greece’s Aegean Sea coast and will be intense near Athens.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_3mo_twitter.png

From September through November deficits will shrink and downgrade, leaving many areas of Europe with nearly normal conditions. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in Finland and Latvia, and primarily moderate to severe deficits in Latvia, Belarus, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Ireland and the northern U.K., central France, and eastern Slovenia. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in northern European Russia and on the Iberian Peninsula, and will shrink and downgrade near Athens.

The forecast for the remaining months – December through February – indicates nearly normal water conditions for much of the region with surpluses in southern Norway, central Europe, northern European Russia, and pockets of eastern Spain. Severe deficits will linger in northern Finland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drier than normal conditions in many parts of Europe this spring are leading to conservative agricultural forecasts. Experts at the European Union estimate a seven percent drop in wheat output, pulling France’s crop down to a four-year low. The U.K. had its driest May in a century and Germany received less than half its normal rainfall last month.

Belgium saw its driest May in 120 years, prompting water restrictions in the agricultural province of West Flanders. The ban on pumping water from the Yser River has left farmers facing significant losses, estimating half the normal yield per acre.

Sugar-beet giant British Sugar is predicting a drought-related reduction in harvest. In a normal year, the company satisfies around half of the U.K.’s sugar needs.

Irish Water, Ireland’s national water utility, instituted a six-week water conservation order in response to drought conditions, banning non-essential hosepipe use. Northern Ireland’s water authority is holding off on a ban but recommending voluntary household reductions in water use as reservoir levels in the region drop due to dry weather combined with increased water usage during the COVID-19 pandemic.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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