South Asia: Water surpluses will shrink but remain widespread

South Asia: Water surpluses will shrink but remain widespread

26 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2021 indicates water surpluses in western India from Gujarat reaching through eastern Rajasthan and into pockets of Uttar Pradesh, and encompassing much of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Goa. Surpluses but will be severe to extreme in most of Gujarat.

Surpluses will also reach south in a narrow path down the center of Karnataka and will be exceptional in a small pocket on the state’s northern border. Surpluses are forecast for Odisha on the Bay of Bengal and for Indian regions bordering Bangladesh. Anomalies will be exceptional in western Assam and Meghalaya. In southern India, deficits are expected in Tamil Nadu. In Sri Lanka, some moderate surpluses are forecast.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in much of Pakistan’s northern two-thirds with extreme anomalies reaching south along the Indus River. Mild deficits are forecast in the southwest. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in much of Afghanistan as well, encompassing Kandahar, Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, and tracing the paths of the Helmand and Harirud Rivers.

Surpluses are forecast for Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, and will be especially widespread and intense in Bangladesh.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses in the region will shrink but remain widespread. Nearly normal conditions are forecast in northwestern, southern, and parts of eastern India. Surpluses will persist in western and central India with severe to extreme anomalies re-emerging in northern Gujarat joining those in the south half of the state. Surpluses will persist in a path down the center of Karnataka and will moderate in southeastern Odisha, regions bordering Bangladesh, and a pocket of the Far Northeast. Surpluses will be moderate to severe in Bangladesh, of varying intensity in Nepal, and generally moderate in Sri Lanka. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, surpluses are expected to shrink and downgrade slightly but will remain widespread and intense. Deficits in southern Pakistan will nearly disappear.

From October through December, surpluses will shrink but persist in western and central India with severe and extreme anomalies in Gujarat. Nearly normal conditions are expected in Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with moderate surpluses along a path down western Bangladesh. Widespread surpluses in Afghanistan and Pakistan will begin to transition but many areas of extreme to exceptional surplus will persist.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2021 – indicates pockets of moderate to severe surplus in central India and transitional conditions in Gujarat. Surpluses in Pakistan and Afghanistan will shrink and transition. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in Pakistan, northwestern India, and India’s Far Northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The death toll from monsoon flooding in India and Nepal has risen to at least 189 and nearly 4 million people have been displaced, including over 2.75 million in India. Successive waves of flooding on the Brahmaputra River in India’s northeastern state of Assam triggered mudslides and damaged crops. The challenge of providing shelter for the homeless has been further complicated by the coronovirus pandemic.

More than 50 animals in Kaziranga National Park, a U.N. World Heritage Site, have died. Operations at an oil well in Baghjan were shut down when the area became inundated by floodwaters, submerging connector roads.

Bangladesh’s minister of disaster management characterized this year’s monsoon flooding as the worst in decades, leaving a million people without shelter.

Monsoon rains claimed seven lives in Karachi, Pakistan, destroying homes and downing power lines. In the northwest region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, glacial lake outburst flooding left 500 homes isolated after damaging nearby roads and bridges, and heavy rains in South Waziristan claimed two lives.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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