Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in the Yucatan

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in the Yucatan

24 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending March 2021 indicates intense water surpluses in northeastern Sonora, Mexico at the confluence of the Batepito, Bavispe, and Yaqui Rivers, and in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Deficits are forecast for parts of the Baja Peninsula, intense in the north and moderate in the south. Deficits are also forecast in the north-central states of Chihuahua and Coahuila, and from Nayarit on the Pacific Coast through Oaxaca in the south. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in Nayarit and Puebla and will be severe in Oaxaca and along the Coatzacoalcos River nearby in southern Veracruz State.

In Central America, surpluses of primarily moderate intensity are expected in pockets of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, and southern Nicaragua. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast throughout Costa Rica and into western Panama.

Deficits are expected in eastern Cuba and Turks and Caicos, surpluses in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Mexico with conditions normalizing in much of the country’s northern breadth. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in northeastern Sonora in the region of the Batepito, Bavispe, and Yaqui Rivers. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Baja Peninsula, and deficits of varying intensity in southern Mexico from Mexico City through Oaxaca and southern Veracruz State. Deficits will be especially intense along the Coatzacoalcos River in Veracruz and nearby in Oaxaca. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will persist in the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses will shrink leaving pockets of moderate intensity in Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, and northern Honduras. Severe surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. Deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear, and some surpluses are forecast.

From October through December, normal conditions are forecast for much of Mexico. Surpluses will shrink in northeastern Sonora, shrink and moderate in the Yucatan, and intensify in a pocket of southern Durango into Zacatecas. Moderate to severe deficits will linger in a small pocket of Oaxaca, and deficits will moderate along the Coatzacoalcos River in Veracruz. Conditions in much of Central America and the Caribbean will normalize though moderate surpluses will persist in Costa Rica, western Panama, and a few other pockets in the region.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2021 – indicates that deficits will emerge in southern Chihuahua, Mexico, and pockets along the Pacific Coast north of Acapulco; and will increase in Oaxaca. Some pockets of surplus will persist in Sonora, Zacatecas, the Yucatan, Central America, and the Caribbean. Moderate deficits will emerge in El Salvador.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought is affecting 77 percent of Chihuahua, Mexico, including 15 municipalities in severe drought according to the National Meteorological Service.

Mexico’s southern state of Puebla is also experiencing drought conditions that have damaged corn and sorghum in 26 communities. Nearly half of Oaxacan municipalities report drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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