Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook August 2020

3 August 2020

OVERVIEW
The August Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in Gujarat, India and in the Horn of Africa. Notable areas with a forecast of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures include eastern Canada, much of southern China into Southeast Asia, and Queensland, Australia.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Western India is forecast to be wetter than normal with exceptionally wetter conditions in Gujarat, with surpluses of lesser intensity forming a wide path reaching north into the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will also trace a path south along the Arabian Sea Coast through Maharashtra and Karnataka. Precipitation surpluses are forecast for southeastern Pakistan and a wide border-to-border band in the north. Deficits are expected in India’s Far North; stretching across the northern reaches of the Gangetic Plain; and in Nepal, Bhutan, Assam, and Tamil Nadu in India’s southern tip.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Precipitation deficits are forecast for western and northern Myanmar and a pocket near Bangkok, Thailand. Surpluses are expected in peninsular Myanmar, eastern and peninsular Thailand, southern Laos, and central and southeastern Vietnam. Nearly normal precipitation is forecast for Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines with some surpluses in northeastern Borneo and the Philippines. Surpluses are also forecast in New Guinea.

Conditions in Australia and New Zealand are expected to be nearly normal.

In China, surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in a wide band across the center of the country from the northern Tibetan Plateau through much of the Yellow River Basin. Surpluses will be exceptional in southern Gansu. Deficits are forecast in western Tibet, the southern Tibetan Plateau, Guizhou and Guangxi in the south, and western Inner Mongolia in the north. Moderate surpluses are forecast in China’s far northeast leading into Russia, and in northern South Korea. In Mongolia, moderate surpluses are expected in the far west and moderate deficits in the southwest. Precipitation is expected to be nearly normal in Japan.

In Central Asia, surpluses are forecast in Kyrgyzstan, southern Kazakhstan, western Tajikistan, and pockets of Turkmenistan.

Relatively normal conditions are predicted for Europe with some pockets of moderate surplus in Northern European Russia, Austria, and south-central Norway, and deficits near Kiev, Ukraine.

Moderate deficits are forecast in northwestern Turkey and some moderate surpluses in the east and into Armenia. In the Middle East, surpluses are forecast in coastal Yemen and pockets in the southern Arabian Peninsula, though moderate deficits are forecast in southwestern Saudi Arabia. Patchwork conditions are forecast for Iran and northern Iraq.

The Horn of Africa can expect precipitation surpluses of varying intensity in eastern Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia, and in Kenya, western Uganda reaching across the border into Democratic Republic of the Congo, and some pockets of Tanzania. Extreme deficits are forecast for a small pocket in northern Ethiopia leading into Eritrea, and moderate deficits near Zanzibar and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Moderate deficits are also forecast in eastern Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa, though anomalies may be severe in Northern Cape, South Africa.

In South America, surpluses are forecast for eastern Brazil, central and northeastern Venezuela, and near the Rio de la Plata in eastern Argentina. Deficits, primarily moderate, are expected in a vast diagonal path encompassing much of Peru, through Acre and southern Amazonas in Brazil, central Bolivia, Paraguay, and through Brazil’s southern states. Deficits elsewhere include Maranhão in northeastern Brazil, northwestern Venezuela, south-central Colombia, Ecuador, central Chile, and northwestern Argentina. Deficits will be extreme in coastal Ecuador.

Scattered precipitation surpluses are expected in Central America and will be severe throughout Belize. In Mexico, surpluses are forecast in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, in Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas in the northeast, and in western Jalisco. Deficits are predicted from eastern Jalisco into Guanajuato, and in the state of Mexico.

In the U.S., the Pacific Northwest can expect scattered, moderate deficits. Moderate deficits are also forecast for Michigan’s northern peninsula. Nearly normal precipitation is forecast for the remainder of the country with mild surpluses in southern and eastern Texas, the Lower Ohio River Basin, and through the Carolinas to the coast.

Moderate deficits are forecast in Quebec, Canada, and surpluses in the Canadian north.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
As noted in the overview, eastern Canada can expect exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures particularly in eastern Quebec and Labrador. Warm anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional are forecast for much of the remainder of Quebec and throughout the Maritime Provinces and Newfoundland. Temperatures will be moderately warmer than normal in most of Ontario reaching through a vast area west of Hudson Bay, though anomalies may be severe in northeastern Manitoba and exceptional near Lake Winnipeg. In the West, moderately warmer temperatures are forecast north of the Peace River in British Columbia and Alberta and spanning their southern border.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

The U.S. Pacific Northwest will see moderately warmer temperatures and the Southern Rockies, the Southwest, and California can expect severe warm anomalies with some extreme pockets in northern Utah and southwestern Arizona. Nearly normal temperatures are forecast for the center of the country but Michigan will be moderately warmer and the East Coast can expect warm anomalies of varying intensity including exceptionally warmer temperatures in the Northeast and in Florida.

Warmer than normal temperatures of varying intensity will extend throughout the Caribbean. In northern Mexico, the Baja Peninsula will be warmer and severe to extreme anomalies will reach across the northern Gulf of California into Sonora. Warm anomalies are also expected for the north-central states in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and western Durango. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for eastern Durango and Zacatecas. Exceptionally warmer temperatures will follow the Pacific Coast in pockets from Nayarit to Mexico’s southern border. Warm anomalies of severe intensity are expected in the Yucatan.

Central America will be warmer than normal with anomalies ranging from moderate in Guatemala to exceptional from southern Nicaragua through Costa Rica and Panama.

Though normal conditions are expected in the bulk of east-central Brazil - punctuated by a few cooler than normal patches - and Patagonia, much of the remainder of South America can expect warmer than normal conditions. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the eastern Amazon Basin; tracing the Andes from Colombia through northern Chile; and spreading from Uruguay well into Argentina and southern Brazil. Other areas with a forecast of much warmer conditions include small states in Brazil’s eastern tip and the Guiana Highlands from Venezuela into Guyana.

Central and Southern Europe are expected to be warmer than normal with primarily moderate to severe anomalies, though conditions may be extreme in southeastern Spain and islands in the Mediterranean. Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast along the Black Sea Coast of Turkey and pockets leading to the Caspian Sea. Intensely warmer than normal conditions are forecast for much of the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iraq, and around the Persian Gulf into central Iran.

Northwest Africa will be much warmer than normal and intense warm anomalies are forecast along the Atlantic from Guinea through Benin, moderating through Nigeria, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea, then becoming intense from Gabon through coastal Algeria. South Africa will be moderately warmer than the norm though severe anomalies are expected in Northern Cape. Similar conditions are forecast for northern Tanzania, Burundi, and southern Kenya; the Ethiopian Highlands; and northern Sudan. Some pockets of cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in East Africa, including the Horn of Africa, and in southern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Russia will be warmer than normal from the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain and anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Arctic portion of this region. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, west-central Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan will be warmer than the norm, while eastern Kyrgyzstan will be somewhat cooler.

In South Asia, southern Pakistan will be exceptionally warmer, and intensely warmer temperatures are expected in Afghanistan west of Kabul. Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Far Eastern India, and Indian regions along the northern Bay of Bengal can all expect exceptionally warmer than normal conditions. Warm anomalies of generally lesser intensity are forecast for southern India, India’s Far North, and Sri Lanka.

Exceptionally warmer temperatures will encompass Myanmar and reach into northern Thailand and Cambodia, with warm anomalies of varying severity throughout much of Southeast Asia. Likewise, Indonesia and the Philippines will be warmer than normal with many areas of extreme to exceptional anomalies.

The forecast indicates intense warm anomalies across the vast breadth of southern China, the Southeast, and Taiwan, as well as in the Northeast around the northern coast of the Bohai Sea. Relatively normal temperatures are forecast for the Korean Peninsula, and some warm anomalies in Japan, particularly in the south. Mongolia can expect somewhat cooler than normal conditions in pockets of the far west and in the east.

Temperatures will be much warmer than the norm across northern Australia with exceptionally warmer conditions in Queensland and Northern Territory. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in the nation’s southeastern regions. New Zealand will be much warmer with exceptionally warmer conditions on South Island.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released August 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for August 2020 through Apr 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued July 25 through July 31, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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