ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST AUGUST 2020

14 August 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2020 and running through April 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 14, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses from the Lower Mississippi region east to the Virginia coasts will shrink considerably, leaving anomalies primarily in Mississippi. Surpluses elsewhere include South Dakota, Nebraska, and western Montana. Deficits will downgrade in the Southwest and Northeast and persist in Florida.

Canada: The forecast through October for Canada’s most populated areas indicates water deficits near Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg; and surpluses in Calgary and Edmonton. Widespread deficits are forecast in the eastern half of the country. Surpluses will downgrade in southeastern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Mexico but persist from Chihuahua into Durango and along the Coatzacoalcos and Papaloapan Rivers in Veracruz. Areas of surplus include the Yucatan and pockets in Central America.

South America: The forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits reaching exceptional intensity in Peru, northern Chile, the eastern and southern Amazon Basin, and French Guiana. Intense deficits are also forecast on the Paraguay River. Surpluses will shrink in eastern Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through October indicates a pattern of water anomalies similar to May through July though the intensity will downgrade in some regions. Areas of deficit include Finland, the Baltics through Ukraine, and France through Germany. Areas of surplus include Russia, Spain, and the U.K.

Africa: The forecast through October indicates that intense water deficits will shrink in Morocco but emerge in western Algeria. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa. Exceptional deficits will disappear from the Horn of Africa and will nearly disappear from southern Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink as transitions begin but will persist in northern Syria, northeastern Iraq, and western Iran. Deficits will emerge in central Iran, western and southern Iraq, and Kuwait. Mixed conditions are expected in Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink but remain widespread. Deficits will increase east of the Lower Yenisei River, and deficits in the Caspian Basin will retreat.

South Asia: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink but persist in India’s Deccan Plateau, and increase from Gujarat into Uttar Pradesh. Surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh but remain intense and widespread in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade but persist in many areas, particularly Indonesia. Deficits will shrink considerably in Southeast Asia, persisting primarily in western Thailand.

East Asia: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses in China will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread and intense in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins. Deficits will moderate in the south, except in Yunnan, and will emerge north of the Bohai Sea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through October indicates the emergence of exceptional water deficits in the northern reaches of Australia. Surpluses in the southeast will shrink, persisting mainly in the central Murray-Darling Basin. In New Zealand, deficits will shrink considerably.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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