South Asia: Water surpluses will increase in Gujarat

South Asia: Water surpluses will increase in Gujarat

18 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2021 indicates water surpluses in India from Gujarat in the west leading into northeastern Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Surpluses are also expected in the Deccan Plateau in south-central India, extending into Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.

The eastern states of Jharkhand and West Bengal and parts of the Far Northeast including Meghalaya and western Assam will also experience surplus. Anomalies will be exceptional in Meghalaya and Assam.

Mixed water conditions are forecast in India’s Far North, and intense deficits are expected in the nation’s southern tip in Tamil Nadu. In Sri Lanka, some moderate surpluses are forecast in the southeast.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are predicted for much of Pakistan’s northern two-thirds. Deficits are forecast in the southwest and mixed conditions along the Lower Indus River on its approach to the Arabian Sea. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in much of Afghanistan as well, encompassing Kandahar, Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, and along the Harirud River and middle course of the Helmand River. Some areas of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast as transitions occur.

Throughout Bangladesh surpluses will be extreme to exceptional, and surpluses of varying intensity are expected in Nepal and Bhutan including exceptional anomalies on the Gandak River through the center of Nepal leading into India.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses will persist in India’s Deccan Plateau and nearby regions but will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will increase substantially in Gujarat and leading northeast through Rajasthan, re-emerging around Jaipur and reaching into Uttar Pradesh. Surpluses in eastern states and the Far Northeast are expected to shrink and downgrade. In Bangladesh, surpluses will remain widespread but will moderate, and surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Nepal and Bhutan and nearly disappear in Sri Lanka.

In Pakistan, widespread, intense surpluses will persist in much of the nation’s northwestern two-thirds but will diminish in the east past the Chenab River. Moderate surpluses will emerge in pockets of the southeast and in the Indus River Delta; mild deficits in the southwest will intensify somewhat, becoming moderate. While surpluses will remain intense in many areas of Afghanistan transitional conditions will increase as deficits emerge.

From November 2020 through January 2021, the distribution pattern of surpluses in India will persist as in the prior three months but anomalies will shrink. Transitional conditions are predicted for Gujarat. Deficits in Tamil Nadu will nearly disappear. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, leaving some areas of moderate surplus. In Pakistan, surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat, with transitional conditions forecast as well. Transitional conditions are also expected in central Afghanistan though intense surpluses will persist, and surpluses of varying intensity will emerge in the southwest as deficits disappear.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2021 – indicates surpluses in several regions of India including Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, and transitional conditions in Gujarat. Intense surpluses are forecast for central Pakistan; surpluses in Afghanistan will shrink considerably.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall upstream on the Brahmaputra River in July led to flooding that waterlogged a third of Bangladesh’s total land area, inundating a million homes, affecting 4.7 million people, and causing 54 deaths.

This season’s monsoon has killed 131 people in Nepal through mid-July, victims of flooding, landslides, and lightning. Cargo and passenger travel along the nation’s main highway to the capital, Kathmandu, was blocked at many points by extensive damage.

At least 64 people died in Pakistan due to heavy monsoon rainfall.

And in the southern Indian state of Kerala, at least 43 people were killed when flooding in early August triggered a landslide that buried dozens of homes on a tea plantation. A plane approaching Kerala’s airport skidded off a slippery runway, killing 18 people aboard.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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