Canada: Water surplus to increase west of Gatineau River QC

25 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through May 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Exceptional deficits are forecast in a wide path on Quebec’s eastern border and into western Labrador, a large block west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and a column spanning the Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity including exceptional deficits are forecast for Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula and Southern Quebec, pockets of Southern Ontario, and much of Northern Ontario. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec south of Lake Saint-Jean, and in Ontario west of Ottawa and on Hudson Bay in the northeast.

Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba, a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, and around Winnipeg. Large pockets of surplus are forecast in north central and northwestern Manitoba. Deficits will be exceptional in other areas of the country including a belt in southern Saskatchewan reaching through Regina; the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in central Alberta; and Alberta’s northwest corner. Deficits are forecast for northern British Columbia, intensifying as they reach well into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.

Much of northern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of extreme to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. In British Columbia, severe surpluses are expected around Fort St. John and exceptional surpluses in the southeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates deficits near Montreal and Winnipeg, and surpluses in Calgary and Edmonton. Though deficits will shrink overall in the nation, large areas are forecast including intense deficits along Quebec’s border into Labrador, at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and west of Lake Mistassini. Deficits are also forecast from Montreal through the Gaspé Peninsula, and in Newfoundland, southern Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Deficits will persist with intensity along the Quebec/Ontario border, shrink and moderate in Southern Ontario, and downgrade in much of Northern Ontario. Surpluses will increase west of the Gatineau River in Quebec, joining those west of Ottawa, and retreat from the Missinaibi River region of Northern Ontario.

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Exceptional deficits will persist along Hudson Bay in Manitoba and across the center of the province, with surpluses increasing between. Intense deficits across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan will retreat. Widespread surpluses will persist in northern Saskatchewan trailing into Alberta. Surpluses are forecast near Calgary, Alberta and east of Edmonton; intense deficits will persist in the Middle Athabasca River Watershed, downgrading slightly around Lesser Slave Lake and shrinking slightly in the northwest. In British Columbia, surpluses will downgrade in the southeast, persist around Fort St. John, and increase in the Upper Peace River. Deficits on Vancouver Island will shrink.

From December 2020 through February 2021, deficits will continue to decrease overall with normal conditions increasing in the Maritimes. Large blocks of deficit will persist, particularly in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba. Anomalies will persist in Saskatchewan and Alberta, moderate surpluses will increase along the Peace River, and conditions on Vancouver Island will normalize.

The forecast for the final three months – March through May 2021 – indicates little change in the distribution of anomalies but surpluses will shrink and moderate somewhat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After low rainfall in parts of Eastern Quebec and the Maritimes during the critical summer growing period, Farm Credit Canada is reaching out to financially distressed farmers with loan support. The drought has affected forage, blueberry, potato, dairy, and beef producers in the Maritimes, and caused shortages of hay and forage in Eastern Quebec and the Gaspé Peninsula.

Agricultural analysts expect a 15-25 percent drop in Prince Edward Island’s potato harvest this year due to drought, making it one of the lowest yields in the last 20 years. New Brunswick will likely see a 30 percent drop in some varieties.

On the opposite side of the nation, drought conditions are taking hold on Vancouver Island and in the south Okanagan region of British Columbia, as evidenced by low water levels and dry riverbeds. Provincial officials are recommending water conservation.

At the end of August, around 30 percent of Canada’s Prairie region was experiencing drought, including almost 60 percent of the area’s agriculturally productive land.

Heavy rainfall produced flooding in Windsor, Ontario in late August, closing some streets and reaching into basements. A bridge was closed over Turkey Creek in nearby La Salle as the water reached dangerous levels. The city of Windsor offered free flood-damage garbage pick-up to uninsured residents and maintains a basement subsidy program to help homeowners install pumps.

After April’s widespread flooding in Fort McMurray, Alberta, residents of one neighborhood are petitioning the city government for a buy-out at a requested $97.5 million (US $72.8 million).

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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