Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits to persist in Chihuahua

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits to persist in Chihuahua

25 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending May 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity in northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many areas including the Baja Peninsula, northwestern Sonora, Chihuahua, northern Coahuila, central Durango, and Nayarit.

A wide belt of deficits in central Mexico will reach from Nayarit on the Pacific Coast to Tamaulipas and Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico with some small pockets of exceptional deficit forecast in San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Jalisco, and Puebla.

Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatán Peninsula and will be exceptional in Yucatán State. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in northeastern Sonora near the Bavispe and Yaqui Rivers, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) at their confluence with the Batepito River.

In Central America, surpluses, primarily moderate to severe, are expected in Guatemala, El Salvador, pockets of Honduras, southern Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and a few small coastal pockets in Panama.

In Cuba, moderate deficits are expected in Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Ávila, and Holguín Provinces. Deficits will be more intense in Turks and Caicos Islands, and surpluses are forecast for the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Mexico, but severe to extreme deficits will persist in southern Chihuahua. Deficits of varying intensity will form path from southern Nuevo Leon, through San Luis Potosi, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, and Puebla. Exceptional deficits will increase along the northern Gulf of California reaching into northern Baja while moderate deficits are forecast for Baja’s southern half. Surpluses are expected to re-emerge in northeastern Sonora in the region of the Batepito, Bavispe, and Yaqui Rivers, as well as in a few small pockets on Mexico’s central Pacific Coast. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade on the Yucatán Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses will also shrink and downgrade, leaving nearly normal conditions in Belize and Panama, and pockets elsewhere in the region, with severe surpluses from southern Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica. Deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear, and some surpluses are forecast.

From December 2020 through February 2021, normal conditions or mild deficits are forecast for much of Mexico but deficits of greater intensity are expected in some regions, including southern Chihuahua into northwestern Durango, and from Nayarit trailing into the central states and then south to Puebla. Deficits will be intense in some small pockets. Surpluses will shrink in northern Sonora and the Yucatán, and pockets of surplus will persist in Central America, particularly from southern Nicaragua into Costa Rica.

The forecast for the final three months – March through May 2021 – indicates that exceptional deficits will emerge along Mexico’s central Pacific Coast and southern Baja and deficits will intensify in the north-central states. Pockets of surplus are forecast for the Yucatán, Central America, and the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Violence erupted in Mexico’s drought-parched northern state of Chihuahua in September when farmers clashed with national guard forces at La Boquilla Dam over the government’s commitment to divert water from Mexico to the U.S. to satisfy a water debt. Two among the nearly 2,000 protesters were killed by police at some point after a group of 200 farmers and ranchers gained control of the dam, closed the sluice gates, and damaged the turbines causing a power black-out. Chihuahua has received barely a third of its normal rainfall this summer. The estimated cost of repair to the dam is 100 million pesos (US $4.475 million). As of 22 September, the protest and dam occupation continue.

Since the drought of 2019 depleted water sources into the Panama Canal and prompted authorities to institute a surcharge on the waterway, officials have been looking into projects that could help ensure sufficient water. The Canal authority expects to invest $2 billion in dams, water transfer schemes, and desalination in the near future. Rainfall in the Canal’s watershed during 2019 was 20 percent below average.

Several tropical storms struck Central America and the Caribbean in September. Early in the month, Belize felt the force of Hurricane Nana, forcing 4,000 people into shelters and causing power outages in some districts. Flooding and landslides were reported in Honduras. In mid-September, Hurricane Paulette glanced Bermuda, knocking down trees and power lines.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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