Australia & New Zealand: Intense water deficits will persist in Tasmania

Australia & New Zealand: Intense water deficits will persist in Tasmania

17 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates intense water deficits in eastern Australia from Cairns in northern Queensland through the eastern Murray-Darling Watershed. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas including a large block from Rockhampton to Brisbane in Queensland reaching inland to the center of the state.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Victoria with exceptional deficits from its western border into South Australia past Adelaide. The forecast for Tasmania indicates severe to exceptional deficits.

Exceptional deficits will also encompass a vast area in center of the nation in the Lake Eyre drainage basin at the intersection of Northern Territory, Queensland, and South Australia, and the Strzelecki Desert in the northwest corner of New South Wales.

Top End, Northern Territory can expect severe to exceptional deficits as can the northern Kimberley in Western Australia. Some surpluses are forecast along the northwest coast of Western Australia, and exceptional deficits in the southwest tip around Busselton. A pocket of intense surplus is forecast inland of the southern coast of Western Australia north of Esperance.

Nearly normal conditions are expected in New Zealand with a few small pockets of generally moderate deficit in the north and moderate surplus in the southern extremes. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Australia, with exceptional deficits persisting at the intersection of South Australia (SA), Queensland (QLD), and New South Wales (NSW). Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra with some isolated pockets of extreme deficit. Conditions in southern Victoria (VIC) will be similar. Deficits will be somewhat more intense in Tasmania (TAS) with exceptional anomalies around Hobart and the Derwent River region. In Western Australia (WA), intense deficits are forecast for the southwestern tip near Busselton and the Blackwood River. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected along the northwest coast of WA radiating from the Eighty Mile Beach area and moderate surpluses in the northern portion of the Great Sandy Desert.

In New Zealand, moderate deficits are forecast in the north though deficits may be severe east of Wellington. Some surpluses are expected in the southern extremes including the region around Dunedin. Deficits in New Caledonia will downgrade, becoming primarily moderate to severe.

From April through June conditions will become nearly normal in much of Australia, New Zealand, and New Caledonia with some moderate deficits east of Melbourne and down the center of TAS, and surpluses persisting in northwestern WA. A pocket of exceptional surplus is expected to persist in southern WA north of Esperance.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2020 – indicates persistent surpluses in northwestern WA radiating from Eighty Mile Beach, though exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in the eastern Great Sandy Desert as transitions occur and in Northern Territory.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Massive, merged bushfires covering 2,300 square miles in southeastern Australia - nearly 1.5 million acres - have killed at least 26 people and more than a billion animals, threatened rare species, produced smoke that reached as far away as Chile, and resulted in apocalyptic media images that circled the globe.

Heat and drought bumped up the start of Australia’s fire season. In New South Wales multiple fires in early December threatened Sydney’s 5 million residents, blanketing the metropolis in smoke. As the fire season has progressed, many outdoor sporting events have been cancelled and surgical masks have become common attire as a precaution against breathing difficulties.

Australia experienced its driest spring with rainfall two-thirds below the long-term average. The combined factors of drought and high water and feed prices are pummeling the nation’s dairy industry and 2020 milk production is forecast to be the lowest in 25 years. Wheat production estimates have dropped by 8 percent year-on-year, with Western Australia’s average yield expected to be 37 percent lower, helping to push the nation’s winter crop forecast into its third year in a row of decline.

The amount of water currently stored by Australia’s major cities varies but overall represents a 30 percent decline from 2013, as of the end of November.

Drought has also exacerbated bushfire risk in New Caledonia and prompted fire bans. Since mid-September 300 square kilometers have burned, with an outbreak near Noumea in Mont Dore where more than a third of the nation’s drinking water is sourced.

Heavy rains accompanied by high winds caused chaos in New Zealand in early December, swelling rivers, flooding highways, and disrupting power and transportation. Bus schedules were delayed in Wellington on North Island and flights were diverted to Christchurch on South Island. The South was impacted as well with over 200 mm (~8 inches) of rain recorded in just over a day, triggering flooding that produced some spectacular waterfalls in Fiordland, unmoored several large shipping containers on the Buller River in Tasman, and evacuated campers from sites along the swollen Takaka and Waitapu Rivers. As Lake Wanaka rose, lakeside businesses were sand-bagged and the harbormaster advised boat owners to remove watercraft from the lake.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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