Canada: Exceptional water deficits cover much of Quebec

17 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through September 2020 indicates a forecast of deficits for nearly all of Quebec north of the Gouin Reservoir in the Mauricie region of the province, including vast areas of exceptional deficit.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201910-202009_12mo_panel.png

Elsewhere in the nation, exceptional deficits are also forecast for western Labrador, a column along Ontario’s eastern border, the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, a belt across central Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, the Upper Assiniboine River region in southeastern Saskatchewan, central Alberta west of Edmonton and also the province’s northwest corner, and in British Columbia at the bend of the Fraser River east of Prince George.

A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Fort McMurray, Alberta leading north well past Lake Athabasca and east past Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected in the southern Columbia Mountains of British Columbia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2020 for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City, Montreal, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver. Moderate deficits are expected west of Ottawa and around Regina, and severe surpluses west of Toronto.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201910-202009_3mo_panel.png

The overall distribution pattern of anomalies throughout the nation from January through March is expected to be similar to conditions observed in the prior three months. Specifically, exceptional deficits will persist in many vast areas of central and northern Quebec (QC) reaching into western Labrador. Deficits are forecast for much of Southern Ontario (ON) and will intensify from prior months, though surpluses are expected west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits will persist in a wide pocket along ON’s eastern border surrounding Timmons, and severe to exceptional deficits in the province’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses will persist in a large block of north-central ON from Hudson Bay to the Albany River and in southern Kenora District.

In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits are forecast in a large block north of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba (MB), and in the northeast along Hudson Bay. Intense surpluses will persist in MB’s northwestern corner and severe to extreme surpluses are forecast around Brandon along the Assiniboine River in the south. In Saskatchewan (SK), moderate deficits are expected around Regina, exceptional deficits in the Upper Assiniboine River, and intense surpluses in a vast block of northwestern SK reaching across the border past Fort McMurray, Alberta (AB).

Exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern AB and severe to exceptional deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in the center of the province. In British Columbia (BC), intense surpluses are forecast in the southern Columbia Mountains and moderate to extreme surpluses in the northeast surrounding Williston Lake. Deficits in central BC at the intersection of the Nechako and Fraser Rivers will remain intense though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink somewhat, and exceptional deficits will persist in the north around Prince Rupert. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist along BC’s border with Yukon.

From April through June 2020, deficits will shrink in QC, but vast blocks of exceptional deficit will persist west of Lake Mistassini, surrounding the Caniapiscau Reservoir in the northeast leading well into Labrador past the Smallwood Reservoir, and near Sept-Îles in the east at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Intense deficits will persist along ON’s northeastern border and in the northwest quadrant of the province, shrinking and downgrading somewhat, but surpluses in ON will nearly disappear. Aforementioned deficits and surpluses in SK and AB will generally persist, and surpluses will increase around Grand Prairie in northwestern AB and across the border into BC. In BC, deficits will shrink, and surpluses will shrink around Williston Lake in the north but increase in the south.

The forecast for the final three months – July through Sept 2020 – indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in QC, but widespread moderate anomalies will emerge. Deficits will downgrade in ON and AB but persist with intensity in MB. Surpluses will shrink in BC but persist in northern SK.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Millions of acres of canola languished unharvested in Canada, victims of a soggy autumn, pushing production down eight percent from last year, the smallest harvest in four years.

Intense fall precipitation in Manitoba - heavy rainfall and early snow - left over a quarter of the season’s potato crop in the ground, according to an association representing 50 growers, marking the second year in a row potato farmers in the province are facing losses.

The “Pineapple Express,” an atmospheric river that forms in the tropical Pacific, roared into Vancouver, British Columbia in mid-November, dumping 210 millimeters (8 inches) on one municipality in western Vancouver Island. Street flooding was reported in Metro Vancouver on the mainland.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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