Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in Sonora & Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in Sonora & Central America

17 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September 2020 indicates deficits in northern Baja, Mexico ranging from moderate to exceptional. Pockets of surplus are forecast for the Peninsula’s southern tip and northwestern corner.

Surpluses are also forecast across the Gulf of California in the northwestern state of Sonora and will be intense in the northern Yaqui River Basin. A scattering of moderate surpluses is forecast on Mexico’s Pacific Coast from Puerto Vallarta through coastal Michoacán. Moderate deficits are expected in pockets of central Mexico and at the shared border of Chihuahua and Durango in the north.

In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and pockets of Guatemala. Havana, Cuba can expect severe deficits. Surpluses are forecast along Haiti’s western coast and in the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that intense surpluses will persist in Sonora in northwestern Mexico and severe surpluses around Monterrey in Nuevo León. Surpluses in coastal Mexico along the Pacific will transition to exceptional deficit in Michoacán and Guerrero, as well as further south around the Gulf of Tehuantepec in Oaxaca and Chiapas with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Pockets of surplus are expected near the Federal District and in the south. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in the state of Veracruz, reaching inland, and will emerge in the eastern Yucatán Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses are forecast from central Guatemala into Honduras, southern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. In the Caribbean, surpluses are expected in the central Bahamas and along Haiti’s western coast spreading from Port-au-Prince.

From April through June 2020, normal water conditions are expected in many parts of the region. However, deficits are forecast for Mexico’s Baja Peninsula and across the Gulf into coastal Sonora. Surpluses will persist in northern Sonora, and with much lesser extent and intensity around Monterrey in Nuevo León. Coastal regions in the Pacific states of Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero will transition to surplus. In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and a few other pockets in the region. Intense surpluses will persist around Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and moderate surpluses in the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September 2020 – indicates near-normal conditions in much of Mexico with moderate deficits in Baja and surpluses in Sonora. Surpluses are also forecast for Panama and Haiti’s western coast.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The Mexican state of Veracruz entered the winter dry season with over half of its municipalities experiencing some level of drought - the first time in its history.

In Zacatecas State, northwest of Mexico City, drought has significantly impacted the bean harvest, with production dropping by 65 percent, the lowest level in the past 20 years. The state’s catastrophic insurance program has begun distribution of 20 million pesos (USD $1.04 thousand) to affected growers as well as 57 million pesos (USD $2.96 million) earmarked for the distribution of oat seed.

In nearby San Luis Potosi, the hard-hit municipality of Cerritos has suffered a 50 percent drop in cultivated crops due to the drought, including sorghum, sunflower, and corn. Sorghum production alone in Cerritos is expected to drop from 8 thousand tons to 200 tons.

The Raramuri, an indigeneous community in Mexico’s northwestern state of Chihuahua, are facing the prospect of seasonal migration to urban areas in order to survive the drought, which has devastated their family corn and bean crops. Malnutrition is at critical levels in a few communities. Drought and early frost reduced the state’s annual bean production this year to around 20 percent of average and corn to 30 percent.

Heavy rainfall at the end of November caused several rivers in the Sarapiqui region of Costa Rica to overflow their banks, leaving some areas isolated. The nation has contracted for over 29 water infrastructure projects at a cost of 14.8 billion colóns (USD ~$26 million) for flood control, reservoirs, dikes, and irrigation systems.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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