ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST OCTOBER 2020

15 October 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2020 and running through June 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List October 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink in the West and Southwest, downgrading considerably, but will remain intense in the Northeast and in Florida, and will emerge in the central Plains.

Canada: The forecast through December indicates many areas of intense water deficit in the Maritimes, Newfoundland, Quebec, and Ontario. Widespread surpluses are expected in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Surpluses in British Columbia will be intense near Kelowna.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through December indicates water deficits in much of Mexico outside of the Yucatán. Anomalies will be intense in southern Baja, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and eastern states. Surpluses are forecast in pockets of Central America and the Caribbean.

South America: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably, but intense deficits are forecast in Venezuela, French Guiana, far eastern Brazil, and Chile. Severe deficits are forecast in Brazil from Mato Grosso do Sul through São Paulo State.

Europe: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably, persisting primarily in the Baltics, Belarus, and Sweden. Surpluses will increase in Austria and Czech Republic, reaching well into surrounding nations, and will persist in Ireland, U.K, and European Russia.

Africa: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits in North Africa will moderate though some large pockets of exceptional deficit are expected in the western Sahara Desert. Surpluses are forecast in the Sahel, East Africa, northern Somalia, and pockets of South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through December indicates that exceptional water surpluses will persist around Mosul and severe surpluses in northwestern Iran. Moderate deficits are forecast in eastern Syria, much of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and pockets of central Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through December indicates water surpluses in northern European Russia, the Ob River Watershed, and the Middle Yenisei River. Areas of intense deficit include the Lower Yenisei region and the Lena River Watershed. Exceptional surpluses will emerge on the Amu Darya River.

South Asia: The forecast through December indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist in western India and the Deccan Plateau, Bangladesh, eastern Nepal, and many regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Intense deficits will emerge in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will nearly disappear. Many areas of surplus are forecast including Vietnam, Laos, eastern Cambodia, and central Indonesia. Surpluses will be exceptional on the Mekong River through Cambodia and Vietnam.

East Asia: The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses in China will remain widespread in the Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds and in Northeast China, with exceptional anomalies shrinking in the river basins but increasing in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast in Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through December indicates near normal conditions as exceptional deficits retreat. Deficits will persist in Australia’s southwestern tip and Tasmania. Areas of surplus include the central Murray-Darling Basin and the Avon River region in Western Australia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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