Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in many regions of Mexico

26 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending June 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity in northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas of the north including the Baja Peninsula, northwestern Sonora, Chihuahua, and northeastern Durango.

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In central Mexico, a wide belt of deficits will reach from Nayarit on the Pacific Coast to Tamaulipas and Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico and will include small pockets of exceptional deficit. A few small pockets of surplus are forecast in southern Durango, coastal Colima and Michoacán, and the Yucatán.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast in many regions Central America, particularly Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica.

In Cuba, moderate deficits are expected in Sancti Spíritus and Ciego de Ávila Provinces in the center of the nation, and surpluses near Havana. Deficits will be severe in Turks and Caicos Islands, and surpluses are forecast for the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates water deficits of varying intensity in much of Mexico outside of the Yucatán Peninsula. Though deficits will be mild to moderate in many regions, several large areas will experience more intense anomalies: deficits will be exceptional in southern Baja; severe to exceptional from southern Chihuahua through Coahuila; and severe to exceptional in a broad path from southern Nuevo León into San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas, northern Veracruz, Querétaro, Hidalgo, and Tlaxcala. The Yucatán Peninsula will transition away from surplus to nearly normal conditions.

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In Central America, surpluses will shrink and downgrade, but many pockets will persist throughout the region, particularly from southern Nicaragua into Costa Rica. Deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear, and some surpluses are forecast.

From January through March 2021, deficits will retreat from the Baja Peninsula, and shrink and downgrade in Chihuahua and Coahuila and from Nuevo León to Tlaxcala. However, exceptional deficits will emerge from eastern Durango into central Zacatecas, and in a path on the central Pacific Coast through Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Intense deficits are also expected in Oaxaca and Chiapas in the south. Surpluses will persist in Nicaragua and Costa Rica and other pockets in Central America. Mixed conditions are forecast in the Caribbean with some deficits emerging in central Cuba and the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2021 – indicates that deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade leaving moderate anomalies in the north along with a few intense pockets. The remainder of the country can expect normal conditions with some mild deficits, and also some pockets of moderate surplus scattered near the Pacific Coast. Surpluses are forecast from Nicaragua into Costa Rica, and in pockets of the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The governments of Mexico and the U.S. have reached an agreement on repayment of Mexico’s water debt. The agreement, Minute No. 325, was signed in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico just one day before the deadline and with Mexican farmers still occupying La Boquilla Dam in Chihuahua on the Conchos River, a tributary of the Rio Grande, a protest that began in early September. Mexico was approaching the deadline for the second consecutive 5-year cycle of unmet water debt. The new agreement satisfies the debt on paper without actual movement of water by transferring ownership of water already stored in the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs from Mexico to the U.S.

Funding has been approved for a second desalination plant in Los Cabos in Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. The US $240 million investment will help provide water to 464,000 residents of Los Cabos in Baja California Sur who currently rely on water supplied by tanker trucks. The targeted opening for the plant is 2022.

Torrential rainfall in early October led to flooding in Tabasco, Mexico with a meter of standing water reported in the capital city of Villahermosa. Hurricane Delta dealt a blow to the Yucatan Peninsula, with widespread flooding, power outages, and one death reported.

This year’s rainy season, May through November, has already claimed 21 lives in Guatemala, nearly twice the number as last year. Flooding and landslides have damaged 238 roads, 9 bridges, and several thousands homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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