Canada: Widespread water deficits to persist in the East

26 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through June 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include a wide path on Quebec’s northeastern border leading into western Labrador, a large block west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and a column spanning the Quebec/Ontario border.

Deficits will also be intense in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and much of Northern Ontario’s Kenora District. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec south of Lake Saint-Jean, and in Ontario west of Ottawa and on Hudson Bay in the northeast.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_202007-202106_12mo_twitter.png

Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba, a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, and around Winnipeg. Large pockets of surplus are forecast in north central and northwestern Manitoba. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in a belt in southern Saskatchewan reaching through Regina; the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in central Alberta; and Alberta’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia. Deficits are also forecast for northern British Columbia, intensifying as they reach well into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.

Much of northern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of extreme to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west across the border with Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. In British Columbia, moderate surpluses are expected around Fort St. John, exceptional surpluses west of Williston Lake in the north, and surpluses of varying intensity in the central Fraser River Watershed in the south where surpluses will be exceptional near Kamloops.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that vast areas of exceptional deficit will persist along Quebec’s border into Labrador, at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and west of Lake Mistassini. Intense deficits are also forecast in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and southern Nova Scotia, and deficits of varying intensity from Montreal through the Gaspé Peninsula. Deficits in Southern Ontario will downgrade, exceptional deficits will persist in a column along the northern Quebec/Ontario border, and deficits in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District will remain widespread. Surpluses will persist in Ontario where James Bay joins Hudson Bay, and will shrink and moderate in Quebec south of Gouin Reservoir.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_202007-202106_3mo_twitter.png

In Manitoba, exceptional deficits will persist along Hudson Bay and across the center of the province, with surpluses intensifying between. Deficits will increase in the southern half of the province, downgrading near Winnipeg. Deficits are forecast in southeastern Saskatchewan and surpluses in the north. In Alberta, deficits will persist in the Middle Athabasca River region and in the northwest crossing into British Columbia; surpluses are expected near Calgary. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase around Lake Williston in the north, moderate in the south except near Kelowna, and emerge northeast of Vancouver. Deficits on Vancouver Island will shrink.

From January through March 2021, deficits will downgrade in the Maritimes, persist with intensity in large blocks of Quebec, moderate in southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, downgrade in the Middle Athabasca River region of Alberta, and retreat from Vancouver Island. Surplus anomalies will persist in a pattern similar to the forecast for the prior three months.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2021 – indicates that conditions in many regions of the country will normalize though pockets of exceptional deficit are forecast in the eastern half of the nation. Surpluses are expected in British Columbia, northern Saskatchewan, and northwestern Manitoba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Dry conditions continued in the Prairie Provinces during September with 35 percent of the region reportedly drier than normal including 71 percent of agricultural land. The region south of Regina, Saskatchewan received only 5 mm ( .2 inches) of rain in September.

Back east in New Brunswick, the drought is so bad that grass is growing in the Wolastoq River (Saint John) bed near Hartland and farmers are complaining of the worst hay crop in over 15 years. The province’s potato industry is expected to see a loss of $45 million to $50 million (US $34 million to $37 million).

Nova Scotia saw its driest September in nearly two decades, with rainfall measuring just 33 mm (1.3 inches) in parts of the southwest. With wells running dry throughout the province, one water hauler said it was the worse he’s seen in 40 years of business. The city of Yarmouth opened a bulk water filling station to serve county residents, replacing an outdated system.

A late September rainstorm in southern British Columbia overwhelmed the storm drains in Kelowna, bringing flooding that popped manholes covers off throughout the city.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags