Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surplus on Amu Darya & Middle Yenisei

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surplus on Amu Darya & Middle Yenisei Rivers

27 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2021 indicates surpluses in northern European Russia that will be exceptional along the Upper Volga River, in a vast pocket west of Moscow, and in the Vychedga Lowlands. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the Lower Volga region and Don River Basin (not shown).

Surpluses are expected in the Ob River Watershed and the Middle and Upper Yenisei River. Deficits will be exceptional on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and in the region of the Lower Yenisei. Deficits are also forecast for much of the Lena River Watershed including intense deficits in the Lena River Delta (not shown) and the Upper Lena River region northwest of Lake Baikal.

In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses are expected in the north near the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana), surpluses of varying intensity in the eastern Kazakh Uplands, and moderate to severe deficits north of the Caspian Sea. Moderate deficits are expected in Turkmenistan and some pockets in southern Tajikistan. Intense surpluses are expected in the Fergana Valley and central Tajikistan. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that exceptional surpluses west of Moscow and in the Vychedga Lowlands will shrink slightly. Intense deficits in the Don River Basin and Lower Volga River region will shrink and downgrade leaving mild anomalies overall, and deficits will emerge in the Ural River Watershed. Widespread surpluses will persist in the Ob River Watershed but exceptional deficits will persist on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits will increase in the region of the Lower Yenisei River while surpluses along the Middle Yenisei River and the Angara, a right tributary, will intensify, becoming exceptional. On the Lower Ishim River, intense deficits will retreat, transitioning to surplus. Deficits will remain exceptional in the Lena River Delta (not shown), will increase and intensify in the Lena River Watershed south of Yakutsk, and though downgrading northwest of Lake Baikal, will be severe. In northern Siberia, exceptional deficits will increase in the Olenyok River Watershed.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses in the north near Nur-Sultan will remain exceptional and widespread. Moderate surpluses will emerge along the Syr Darya and Ile Rivers, and surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the eastern Kazakh Uplands. Exceptional surpluses will emerge on the Amu Darya River through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and into Tajikistan, and intense surpluses are forecast for the Turkmen-Iran border, central Tajikistan, and the Fergana Valley. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in pockets of Kygyzstan and along the Naryn River.

From January through March 2021, surpluses will persist west and north of Moscow and in Vychegda, and moderate surpluses will emerge on the Lower Volga River. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in the Ob River Watershed and intense surpluses will persist in the Upper Yenisei River Basin and along the middle reaches of the river itself. Intense deficits are expected to persist on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob, in the Lower Yenisei region, the Olenyok River Watershed, and the Lena River Watershed. Surpluses will moderate in Kazakhstan, persist in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and retreat from the Amu Darya River. Moderate deficits will emerge in western Kazakhstan on the central Caspian Sea Coast. Transitional conditions will increase on the Turken-Iran border.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2021 – indicates that surpluses and deficits will shrink in Russia though surpluses will remain widespread in the Ob River Watershed. Deficits are forecast from the Gulf of Ob through the region of the Lower Yenisei River, and in the Upper Lena River Watershed. Surpluses will re-emerge in northern Kazakhstan, retreating elsewhere in the nation.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Despite record winter grain planting in Russia, drought has analysts worried about final outputs. August through mid-October rainfall in Rostov-on-Don and Stavropol, two cities in key growing regions, was just a tenth of the 30-year average. In the parched fields, some farmers have resorted to steamrolling the seeds into the ground to prevent them from simply blowing away. Global wheat prices rose to their highest since 2014 as weather patterns in Russia and around the world contributed to market speculation.

Low rainfall over the past several months has left reservoirs serving Crimea at low levels, prompting restrictions on water use in Simferopol and Bakhchysarai. Five rivers in the region have dried up: the Kacha, Alma, Chernaya, Belbek, and Tonas. The Russian government will invest 4.95 billion rubles (US $65 million) to supply the annexed Crimean Peninsula with water and an additional US $11 million for new wells and pipe repair.

Authorities from both nations stepped in to resolve the situation after Tajik citizens began to lay water pipes along a disputed section of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border in the Uch-Dobo area of ​​Batken region. Kyrgyz border guards fired two warning shots after a verbal confrontation. The pipes were dismantled a day later.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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