Europe: Water deficits forecast to persist in Germany

Europe: Water deficits forecast to persist in Germany

21 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2021 indicates water deficits from the Baltics to the Black Sea including exceptional deficits in much of Estonia and Latvia and severe to exceptional deficits in Belarus, Ukraine, eastern Bulgaria, and the Don River Watershed and North Caucasus region in Russia (not shown). Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finnish Lapland and deficits of varying intensity in Sweden’s southern half.

Widespread, intense surpluses are forecast for western European Russia, and surpluses of varying intensity in Sweden’s northern half, around the Gulf of Bothnia, and in southern Norway, Denmark, many regions of the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Surpluses are also forecast in Czech Republic and will reach into surrounding nations including Slovakia, Poland, Austria, and Hungary. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include western Croatia, south-central Serbia, and coastal Belgium.

Deficits are expected from Germany through France, and several areas in Italy and the Balkans. Anomalies will be especially intense in southern Belgium and the Harz and Erzgebirge Mountain ranges in Germany. In France, deficits will be severe in Auvergne and along parts of the Loire River. In Spain, deficits are forecast from Madrid to the Strait of Gibraltar; a patchwork of conditions is expected in the east.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates that deficits will shrink, returning Ukraine and much of Belarus and southern European Russia to near-normal conditions from prior widespread, exceptional deficit. Deficits remain in the forecast, however, for Estonia and Latvia, Finnish Lapland, central Sweden, and Belarus. Deficits will also persist in Germany; much of Belgium and Luxembourg; a column down the center of France through Auvergne; and pockets of Italy. Areas with a forecast of intense deficit include Estonia and southern Belgium. Deficits will increase in the southern Balkan region.

Widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and will be extreme to exceptional. Surpluses will downgrade in Central Europe but remain widespread, particularly in Czech Republic and Slovakia, reaching well into surrounding nations, the Alps, and throughout Romania. In the U.K. and Ireland, surpluses will persist but moderate, and surpluses on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink considerably, leaving pockets in eastern Spain and in Portugal’s southern extreme. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Apulia, Italy (the “bootheel”).

From March through May 2021, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in western European Russia but increase somewhat in the Nordic nations, though moderating. Surpluses will shrink overall in Central and Eastern Europe, the U.K., and Ireland, persisting in Czech Republic, Switzerland, and a pocket in the Scottish Highlands. Deficits will shrink and moderate from Germany through France and in the Balkans. Intense deficits will persist in central Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia. Deficits will increase and intensify in Belarus, and moderate deficits will emerge in neighboring Lithuania, and moderate to extreme deficits in Ukraine. On the Iberian Peninsula, surpluses will nearly disappear as mild deficits emerge.

The forecast for the remaining months – June through August 2021 – indicates surpluses in Russia’s Kola Peninsula and pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, and lingering surpluses in Czech Republic. Deficits are forecast in many other regions of Europe, mild to moderate overall but more intense in the Baltics and western Spain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Corn exports from the EU and UK are expected to drop this year, suppressed by drought in the summer and excessive precipitation in the fall. Poor output in France and Romania were primarily responsible for dragging the forecast down to 2.5 million tons less than last year. Ukraine is likely to see its lowest corn production since 2012-2013 season as drought impacts take a toll.

As of mid-December low levels on the Rhine River continued to affect shipping, as vessel owners command higher surcharges for cargo. Many commodities make their way along the Rhine including oil, coal, grains, and minerals.

Some areas of Scotland suffered flooding in early December and the torrential rainfall also triggered a landslide in Aberdeenshire in the nation’s northeast, disrupting rail and road service.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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