Africa: Water surplus will persist in the Sahel & E Africa

Africa: Water surplus will persist in the Sahel & E Africa

21 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2021 indicates intense water deficits across North Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Pockets of mixed conditions are also forecast (pink/purple).

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected across the Sahel, dipping into northern Nigeria and southern Sudan where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional. In Africa’s Horn, surpluses will be exceptional in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia. Intense deficits are forecast in Djibouti, reaching into neighboring nations.

West Africa can expect pockets of surplus, but intense deficits are forecast in Sierra Leone and moderate to severe deficits in Nigeria’s eastern Middle Belt States. Deficits will also be intense in southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, southern Gabon, and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Central African Republic can expect deficits in the far east and surpluses in the west. Deficits elsewhere include the northern and southern extremes of Angola, northern Namibia, northern Mozambique and its southern tip, Swaziland, Lesotho, and west-central Madagascar. In East Africa, moderate to extreme surpluses will dominate Tanzania, and surpluses are also forecast for western Kenya and along the Victoria Nile through Uganda. Some small pockets of surpluses are forecast in South Africa’s southwest corner.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably. Exceptional deficits will retreat from North Africa, leaving moderate deficits in western Egypt. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Nile River in southern Egypt and in pockets of Libya and northwestern Algeria. Exceptional deficits will increase in central Sudan and emerge from southeastern Ethiopia into Somalia, while deficits from Eritrea through Somaliland downgrade. Intense surpluses will persist in the eastern Sahel, shrinking in the west as transitions occur.

Around the Gulf of Guinea, deficits are expected to increase, emerging in pockets of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, and spreading across southern Nigeria. Deficits will persist with intensity in southern Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, but downgrade in Gabon. In northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), deficits will moderate. North-central Angola will continue to see intense deficits.

In East Africa, surpluses will increase. Widespread moderate to extreme surpluses will persist in Tanzania, though exceptional anomalies will retreat. Moderate surpluses will emerge in eastern Zambia, and surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for Rwanda, Burundi, east-central DRC and a pocket in the nation’s west, western Kenya, pockets of southern Ethiopia, and along the Nile through South Sudan. In South Africa, surpluses are forecast near Cape Town and southeast of Lesotho; deficits will persist in a pocket west of Swaziland.

From March through May 2021, mild to moderate deficits will emerge across North Africa, though anomalies of greater intensity are also expected, including in northern Sudan and spanning the central border of Mauritania and Mali. Surpluses will remain widespread in the Sahel, particularly Chad and southern Sudan, while surpluses in East Africa shrink considerably, persisting in central Tanzania. Exceptional surpluses are expected to re-emerge in Nugaal, Somalia. Conditions in much of the remainder of the continent south of the Sahel will return to near-normal with some mild deficits persisting in northern DRC.

The forecast for the final quarter – June through August 2021 – indicates that deficits across northern Africa will increase, moderate overall but with large pockets of intense deficit in Egypt, northern Sudan, southern Libya, northern Niger, and western Algeria. Surpluses in the Sahel will nearly disappear. Areas of surplus include southern Sudan and northern Ethiopia into Eritrea. Surpluses will persist in central Tanzania and deficits will emerge in southeastern Kenya.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Last year’s drought forced Namibian cattle producers to heavily cull stock, effectively reducing 2020’s estimated slaughter by 66 percent, according to the state-owned meat company. The country is known for its free-range, hormone-free beef.

The persistence of dry conditions in Namibia in 2020 has prompted the federal government to put 170 elephants up for auction. Due to drought, the herd is facing starvation and community-elephant conflicts have increased as animals seek water sources.

Torrential rainfall over the past few weeks has helped replenish South Africa’s dams. Reservoir levels in Eastern Cape Province were reported to be over 50 percent and Gauteng dams serving Pretoria and Johannesburg are at 96 percent.

Late November rainfall caused flooding in Uganda’s Kasese region that claimed three lives. It was the third time this year the area had flooded after events in May and early November.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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