Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in the Lena Watershed

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in the Lena Watershed

22 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2021 indicates surpluses in the coastal Arctic and in Siberia in the region of the Vakh River, a right tributary of the Ob River, and Upper Taz River. Surpluses are also forecast in the Middle Yenisei River Watershed.

Intense deficits are expected on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob, becoming exceptional in the region of the Lower Yenisei. Deficits are also forecast for the Upper and Middle regions of the Lena River Watershed, though intense surpluses are expected in the Lena River Delta (not shown).

In European Russia, surpluses are forecast in the north, and deficits in the Volga and Don River Watersheds in the south.

In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses are expected in the north in the Ishim River Watershed including the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana), and surpluses of varying intensity in pockets of the eastern Kazakh Uplands. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in the northern Caspian Sea Basin. Some moderate deficits are expected in central Uzbekistan and eastern Turkmenistan, and intense surpluses near the Caspian Coast in western Turkmenistan. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the Fergana Valley. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates water conditions much like the prior three months of observed conditions with a notable exception: intense deficits in southern European Russia will shrink and downgrade. Otherwise, exceptional deficits will persist on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and widespread intense deficits are forecast in Lower Yenisei River regions and the vast Lena River Watershed. Intense surpluses are forecast along the Middle Yenisei River and in the Upper Yenisei region.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses in the north near Nur-Sultan will remain exceptional and widespread; severe surpluses are forecast on the Irtysh River; and surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the eastern Kazakh Uplands along with transitional conditions. Moderate surpluses will persist on the Ile River in the south while conditions on the Syr Darya River will return to normal from former surplus. Deficits in the west will shrink and some moderate deficits will persist in the center of the country. Surpluses on the Amu Darya River through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will remain exceptional, and intense surpluses are also forecast for Turkmenistan’s southern border, central Tajikistan, and the Fergana Valley. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan, and deficits will emerge in the center of the country reaching into eastern Tajikistan.

From March through May 2021, widespread deficits in Russia from the Gulf of Ob through Siberia will shrink, though intense deficits will persist across the Gulf of Ob, and in the Lower Yenisei River region, the Middle Lena River Watershed (Alden River), and the Lena Delta. Exceptional surpluses will retreat from the Middle Yenisei and Angara Rivers and surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast in the Middle Ob and Vakh River regions and in the region of the Yenisei’s right tributaries.

In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses will persist in the north and some deficits will persist in the west. Conditions in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will become nearly normal. Surpluses will shrink but persist in central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink in Russia, persisting in the Middle Ob River region and the coastal north. Deficits will increase in the Upper Lena Watershed and between the central Ural Mountains and the Ob River.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Russian authorities have accelerated plans to ensure that Crimea has adequate water supplies, promising an investment of 50 billion rubles (US $681 million). Drought has left the city of Sebastopol with critical water shortages since October and rationing was instituted in Simferopol. A new reservoir system servicing Sebastopol is scheduled for completion in March of 2021. Prior to Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the region relied on Ukraine for 85 percent of its freshwater.

NOAA’s recently released Arctic Report Card indicates that the unusually prolific 2020 wildfire season in Arctic Russia is one manifestation of a changing climate in the region. Warmer air temperatures combined with decreased snow cover exacerbated boreal fires.

Dry weather during southern Russia’s sowing season has left about 22 percent of the winter grain crop in poor condition.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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