South Asia: Water deficits forecast near Bhopal & Kolkata

South Asia: Water deficits forecast near Bhopal & Kolkata

22 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in several regions of India and in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

In India, surpluses of varying intensity will be widespread in the west and the Deccan Plateau, extending from Gujarat through Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses will be exceptional along the central west coast reaching inland Karnataka. Surpluses are also forecast for Jammu and Kashmir in northern India, and Jharkhand, Bihar, Meghalaya, and Tripura in the east.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from Himachal Pradesh in the north reaching south into Madhya Pradesh. Deficits are also forecast in the Far Northeast.

Surplus conditions will dominate all of Bangladesh with intense anomalies in many regions. In Nepal, surpluses are expected in the nation’s eastern half reaching into Bhutan, and will be severe in Kathmandu and exceptional along the Gandaki River. Surplus anomalies will prevail in much of the Indus River Basin in Pakistan, exceptional in the lower region west of the river itself, and of generally lesser intensity north of Islamabad. Transitional conditions (purple/pink) are expected in the center of the country. In Afghanistan, surpluses are expected in a broad path down the center of the nation and will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif and severe near Kandahar.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water surpluses will persist in many parts of the region, but transitions are also forecast as deficits emerge. Intense surpluses will persist coast to coast in southern India through the Deccan Plateau, encompassing Maharashtra’s western half, Goa, Karnataka, much of Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, with pockets of moderate surplus trailing south and emerging in northern Sri Lanka. Transitional conditions are forecast in coastal Maharashtra and in Gujarat, and moderate deficits will emerge in western Rajasthan. Deficits will also emerge in central Madhya Pradesh, including exceptional deficits near Bhopal. Exceptional deficits will also emerge in a pocket near Kolkata in West Bengal, and intense deficits will persist in the northern state of Uttarakhand.

In northern India, Jammu and Kashmir will continue to see surpluses, though anomalies will downgrade slightly. In eastern India, surpluses will persist in Bihar and Jharkhand and will be exceptional in Jharkhand. In the Far Northeast, surpluses are forecast but transitions are also expected as deficits emerge.

Intense surpluses will persist throughout Bangladesh and from Nepal’s eastern half well into Bhutan. Surpluses of varying intensity will continue in northern Pakistan, but transitions are expected in the southern Indus River system and moderate deficits near Pakistan’s southwestern coast. In Afghanistan, surpluses will shrink in the south but remain widespread and intense in much of the rest of the nation, though transitional conditions are also expected.

From March through May 2021, surpluses will persist in India in a distribution pattern much like that of the prior three months with the addition of emerging, moderate surpluses from southern Rajasthan into Madhya Pradesh. The extent of exceptional surpluses will shrink slightly in the Deccan Plateau. Deficits in India will nearly disappear. Surpluses will downgrade in Bangladesh and Nepal and shrink in Bhutan. Much of Afghanistan will return to normal water conditions with some lingering, moderate surpluses. In Pakistan, surpluses will shrink somewhat, and deficits will nearly disappear, but many areas of transition are forecast.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2021 – indicates a return to normalcy for much of the region though surpluses will re-emerge in Pakistan and persist in Karnataka and nearby regions of India. Deficits will increase in India’s Far Northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
At the end of November parts of northeastern Pakistan, including tourist favorite Shugran, were blanketed with two to four feet of snow in just 24 hours. Many roads in the region were impassible and power lines were down, leaving several communities without electricity.

Heavy rainfall events over the past several months led to flooding in the southwestern Indian state of Karnataka. For what was believed to be the first time in any single year, both the Krishna and Bhima River Basins in the region flooded. Damages are estimated at Rs 15,410 crore (USD~$2 billion).

Bangladesh has begun the controversial relocation of 100,000 Rohingya Muslims to a flood-prone island in the Bay of Bengal. The first transfer of 1,500 occurred in early December. Since fleeing persecution in Myanmar, the Rohingya have been housed in refugee camps in Bangladesh, including the largest, Cox’s Bazar.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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