Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surplus to persist in Vietnam & Cambodia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surplus to persist in Vietnam & Cambodia

22 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2021 indicates surpluses in many regions of Southeast Asia. Anomalies will be particularly widespread and intense in Vietnam with exceptional surpluses in Vietnam’s narrow neck, extreme surpluses in the Central Highlands, and moderate to exceptional surpluses in the Mekong Delta and in the far north.

In Laos, surpluses are expected to be intense in the south but milder in the north. Intense surpluses are forecast for many parts of Cambodia and will be particularly widespread in the east and exceptional along the Mekong River. Surpluses of varying intensity, including exceptional, are forecast for eastern and Peninsular Thailand; some moderate deficits are expected in pockets of the west. Myanmar, too, can expect surpluses in many small pockets throughout the country with more widespread and extreme surpluses west of the Irrawaddy River.

Pockets of surplus are expected throughout Indonesia including northeastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluku Islands, and pockets in New Guinea. Anomalies will be intense in northern Sulawesi and Flores Island.

Surpluses are also forecast for many areas of the Philippines and anomalies will be severe to exceptional in the central Philippines.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates widespread, intense surpluses in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos and will include exceptional anomalies. In Thailand, surpluses are forecast in the east and south; pockets of deficit are expected in the north. Myanmar can expect intense surpluses in the southwest and surpluses of lesser intensity in the north and east. Transitional conditions will increase in the center of the nation and are also forecast in the Irrawaddy Delta along with deficits. Surpluses are expected throughout much of the Philippines, pockets of Malaysia, and Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluka Islands, and New Guinea. Anomalies will reach extreme to exceptional intensity in the Philippines and in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea.

From March through May 2021, widespread surpluses will persist in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and eastern and southern Thailand, but exceptional surpluses will shrink, persisting in central Cambodia, Vietnam’s neck and the Lower Mekong. Some small pockets of deficit will persist and intensify in northern Thailand. In Myanmar, normal conditions will return to the center of the nation and surpluses elsewhere will downgrade, though exceptional surpluses will emerge on the Lower Irrawaddy. In the Philippines, surpluses will remain widespread but will moderate. Surpluses will shrink considerably in New Guinea. Widespread deficits are expected to emerge in western Borneo and pockets of Malaysia, Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2021 – indicates normal water conditions overall with some lingering surpluses, primarily in central Vietnam. Moderate deficits are forecast for the Malay Peninsula and small pockets of Indonesia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Prolonged drought in the Upper Mekong River Basin negatively impacted fish spawning, reducing this year’s fish catch. Both the quantity and size of fish are expected to decrease.

Flooding in southern Thailand killed 24 people after torrential rainfall in late November. Over half a million homes suffered flood damage.

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Malaysia as well, displacing 3,000 people.

Five people were swept to their deaths during early December flooding in Indonesia when four rivers overflowed. Authorities shut off electricity and water supply in flooded neighborhoods of Medan, the capital of North Sumatra Province.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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