South America: Widespread water surplus will emerge in the north

South America: Widespread water surplus will emerge in the north

22 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates water deficits in much of Brazil south of the Amazon River including a vast region of intense deficit from Rondônia in the west into Bahia in the east and from Pará in the north through Paraná in the south. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas and along many rivers. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in northeastern Amazonas.

Northern Guyana and coastal French Guiana can expect surpluses, though southeastern French Guiana will experience intense deficits. Surpluses in the Orinoco Delta of Venezuela will be severe, but exceptional deficits are forecast in the northwest in the watershed of the Orinoco’s western tributaries, and will reach well into Colombia north of Bogota, downgrading slightly. Colombia’s western reaches will see mixed conditions and intense deficits are forecast in the southeast. Severe deficits are expected in eastern Ecuador and deficits of varying intensity in central Peru.

Bolivia, too, will experience deficits, with intense anomalies in central and eastern regions and moderate deficits near La Paz. Exceptional deficits will trace the Paraguay River through the center of its namesake and will also follow the Paraná River along the nation’s eastern boundary and through Argentina. Argentina can expect pockets of intense deficit in the northeast and severe deficits in Córdoba Province, moderating as they reach through Buenos Aires Province to the Atlantic. Deficits are forecast along rivers in Patagonia and exceptional deficits in Tierra del Fuego and the Falkland Islands. Deficits are forecast for many regions of Chile including exceptional anomalies throughout much of the nation’s southern half.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that deficits will shrink considerably overall but will remain widespread in Brazil and Chile, and widespread surpluses will emerge across the northern portion of the continent. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in northern Peru, western and far eastern Colombia, southern Venezuela, most Brazilian regions north of the Amazon, and from eastern Venezuela through northern Guyana, Suriname, and coastal French Guiana. Deficits are forecast in western Venezuela, northern Colombia, southwestern Guyana, and eastern Guiana into Brazil.

Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Brazil south of the Amazon, though normal conditions are expected in some southeastern states. Regions with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Acre, southern Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and western Bahia. Deficits in Acre will reach across the border into Ucayali, Peru. Deficit of generally lesser intensity are forecast for Bolivia. In Paraguay, deficits will be extreme along the Paraguay River, downgrading to severe through Argentina. Moderate deficits are expected on the Paraná River, and in northeastern Argentina, northern Buenos Aires Province, Uruguay, and southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. A pocket of surplus is expected in northern Argentina’s Chaco Austral region. Intense deficits will persist in southern Chile, reaching into Argentina; moderate deficits in central Chile; and mixed conditions in the north.

From April through June 2021, normal water conditions will return to many regions of the continent as both deficits and surpluses recede. Pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in the north, including western Colombia, eastern Venezuela, and northern Guyana. Mild deficits are expected in central Brazil overall, pocked with severe to extreme anomalies, particularly in Mato Grosso do Sul. Deficits will shrink in Bolivia, disappear on the Paraná River, and downgrade to severe on the Paraguay River, normalizing in its path through Argentina. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Argentina and Chile, leaving some moderate deficits in eastern Argentina and northern Chile, deficits of varying intensity around the Gulf of Corcovado, and mixed conditions in northwestern Argentina.

In the final quarter – July through September 2021 – surpluses in the north will nearly disappear, and conditions elsewhere will remain much the same as forecast through June, with some increase in moderate deficits in western nations.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flash flooding and hail in early January turned the streets of Sucre, Bolivia into raging rivers that swept cars away and left at least four people dead. A major outdoor market area suffered heavy damage.

The Chilean government has declared an agricultural emergency in many regions including the greater Santiago Metropolitan area, the nation’s capital, due to drought. The declaration is expected to speed relief measures to farmers including drinking water. Other regions affected by drought include Coquimbo, Valparaíso, and O'Higgins. With the drought in Chile into its second decade, the port city of Caldera in Atacama is awaiting completion of a multi-million dollar desalination plant.

Brazil’s Arabica coffee harvest is likely to suffer significant losses this year due to drought which one commodities expert estimates could affect 50 percent of the 2021 crop. The states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo dominate the nation’s Arabica production and though harvest isn’t until May loss estimates in mid-December ranged from 30 to 100 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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