South Asia: Water surpluses persist in India & Bangladesh

South Asia: Water surpluses persist in India & Bangladesh

22 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates widespread surpluses of varying intensity in western India and the Deccan Plateau from Gujarat through Maharashtra, southern Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses will be exceptional along Maharashtra’s southern coast and the Tungabhadra River Basin in Karnataka. Surpluses are also forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, and Bihar.

Moderate deficits are forecast in western Rajasthan and the Far Northeast, and severe deficits in the north from Punjab through Uttaranchal.

Sri Lanka can expect surpluses, and surpluses will dominate all of Bangladesh, reaching exceptional intensity in the Ganges Delta. Surpluses are expected in many regions of Nepal and into Bhutan and will be exceptional along the Gandaki River. Intense surpluses will prevail in much of Pakistan west of the Indus River and in northern tributaries along with transitional conditions (pink/purple) in central and southern Pakistan. In Afghanistan, surpluses are expected across the breadth of the nation and surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the northwest. Anomalies will be intense in the Harirud River region and Mazar-e Sharif.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that intense water surpluses will persist in many parts of the region, but transitions are also forecast as deficits emerge. Surpluses will persist in southern India in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and southern Karnataka, and will emerge in pockets of Tamil Nadu and throughout Sri Lanka. Anomalies will be exceptional in Karnataka. Surpluses will also persist in some regions in the east including Jharkhand, Bihar, Tripura, and Mizoram, and surpluses in the far north will shrink somewhat. In the west, a vast region from Gujarat through northern Karnataka will be in transition (pink/purple). Moderate deficits will emerge in western Rajasthan and deficits of greater intensity will persist in the northern state of Uttarakhand. Transitional conditions are expected in the Far Northeast.

Intense surpluses will persist throughout Bangladesh and from Nepal’s eastern half well into Bhutan, but deficits will emerge in western Nepal. Surpluses of varying intensity will continue in northern Pakistan, but many areas of former surplus elsewhere will be in transition as deficits begin to emerge. In Afghanistan, surpluses will shrink in the south but remain widespread and intense in much of the rest of the nation. Anomalies will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif in the north and extreme near Herat in the west.

From April through June 2021, surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan but will remain widespread in India’s Deccan Plateau and will re-emerge in Gujarat and on the west coast. Surpluses will shrink and moderate in western Jharkhand but will emerge along the Subarnarekha River in the east. Deficits in India will downgrade, becoming mild overall. Surpluses in Afghanistan will shrink somewhat and moderate but will remain widespread in the west. Transitional conditions will persist in Pakistan with surpluses in the north.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink but linger in the Deccan Plateau and Afghanistan, emerge in central India, and re-emerge in Pakistan. Deficits are forecast in Afghanistan’s northern and southern extremes and in India’s Far Northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in mid-January pushed the Thambirabarani River in Tamil Nadu, India over its banks as the river level reached a record high, flooding the nearby region and forcing nearly 850 people into shelters. Releases from several dams in the region further exacerbated conditions. The drinking water supply was disrupted for three days in the city of Tirunelveli, home to nearly half a million residents, when flooding submerged infiltration systems and pumping stations.

Flood events during 2020 cost India an estimated $10 billion in insured losses, according to a UK aid organization, with real costs likely higher.

Repeated flooding throughout Bangladesh has forced the world’s third-biggest rice producer to import the grain, as crops lay devastated. The government has slashed rice import duties in a effort to stabilize prices.

Afghanistan’s glaciers, whose meltwaters are the major source of water in four watersheds – Wakhan, Kokcha, Surkhab, and Kabul - are shrinking. The glacial area, comprised of nearly 4,000 glaciers, diminished by 14 percent from 1990 to 2015. In addition to threatening the freshwater supply needed by millions of people, the meltwaters generate destructive, rock-laden floods.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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