Europe: Water surplus Switzerland through Romania

Europe: Water surplus Switzerland through Romania

25 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in western European Russia with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity. Surpluses are also forecast for the United Kingdom, Ireland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and scattered pockets in nearby nations of Central Europe. Other areas of surplus include Spain’s northern coast and pockets in its interior, coastal Belgium, Oslo (Norway), pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia and eastern Baltic Sea, Umbria in central Italy and the Alps in the northeast.

Deficits are expected from the Baltics through Belarus and several regions in Ukraine. Anomalies will be exceptional in Estonia and Latvia. In European Russia, deficits are forecast in the Volga River Basin, the eastern portion of the Don River Basin, and the Upper Mezen River region in the north. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finnish Lapland and deficits reaching exceptional intensity in the Dalälven River Watershed in central Sweden.

Deficits are expected in pockets of Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and in many regions of the Balkans. Areas with intense anomalies include southern Belgium and Germany’s Harz Mountains. In France, deficits will be severe along parts of the Loire River and extreme near Marseille. Italy can expect deficits in Bologna, Sardinia, and Sicily.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that deficits will shrink, returning Ukraine and much of Belarus and southern European Russia to near-normal conditions. Deficits will remain exceptional in Finnish Lapland and central Sweden, downgrading somewhat in Estonia and Latvia. Deficits will also persist in Germany, Belgium, Auvergne (France), central Albania, from Macedonia into Greece, and several pockets in Italy including Bologna. Areas with a forecast of intense deficit include Estonia, Latvia, Belgium, and the Harz Mountains in Germany. Deficits will intensify in coastal Bulgaria.

Widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and will be extreme to exceptional. In Central Europe, surpluses will remain widespread in a vast arc from Switzerland through Romania, reaching north into Germany and southwestern Ukraine. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. Pockets of surplus are also forecast in northern Balkan nations, but deficits will persist in Macedonia and nearby regions. Though surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Ireland and the U.K. they will remain widespread in England and Wales. Pockets of surplus will persist in France, Italy, and on the Iberian Peninsula, intensifying in central Italy.

From April through June 2021, surpluses will shrink considerably. In Western and Central Europe, pockets will persist in Czech Republic, along the Drau River (Drava) in Austria, and the East of England region. Some areas of generally moderate surplus will persist in the Nordic nations and western European Russia, but anomalies will be more intense and widespread in the Kola Peninsula. Deficits in Estonia and Latvia will elevate, becoming exceptional, and deficits will emerge in Lithuania. Intense deficits will emerge in western and southern Belarus and in the Upper Volga River Basin. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Dnieper River Watershed (Dnipro) of central Ukraine. Deficits will downgrade in Germany but will be severe, and deficits will nearly disappear in Belgium. Deficits, generally moderate, are forecast for central and southern France, a few pockets in Italy including Bologna, pockets of Hungary, Serbia, Macedonia, northern Greece, and Bulgaria’s southern coast.

The forecast for the remaining months – July through September 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink, persisting primarily in the Kola Peninsula. Deficits will downgrade in the Baltics, Belarus, and the Upper Volga region, but will increase in Scandinavia, northern Russia, France, Italy, and the Iberian Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Storm Bella blew into the UK and France over the Christmas holiday, bringing winds up to 106 mph (170 kph) and widespread flooding after heavy rainfall. Trains were cancelled and delayed in southern England due to flooded tracks, 21,000 homes in Wales lost power, and more than 1,000 people were evacuated from a caravan park that flooded on Christmas Eve. Water poured through the walls and bubbled up through the floor of a 680-year old cottage in Bedfordshire.

Across the Channel in France, planes were delayed or rerouted and power outages in the tens of thousands were reported, first in Brittany and Normandy, then reaching into central France. Wind gusts at the top of the Eiffel Tower registered 90 mph (145 kph).

Shortly after taking a beating from Bella, the UK was quickly blanketed by a sudden snowstorm that left at least 22 people stranded on highways in rural northern England, awaiting rescue.

Heavy rain and snow caused flooding in several regions of southeastern Europe as well. Dozens of people were evacuated from Albania and Kosovo as river levels rose, and the Albania Army and the Kosovo Security Force were deployed to assist. Power outages and lack of drinking water were reported in some areas and a bridge collapsed in Lezha, Albania, isolating 1,500 people. The road connecting a municipality in central Kosovo to Pristina, Kosovo’s capital, was inundated. Flooding also affected regions of Bulgaria and Serbia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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